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Two and half Front War

Discussion in 'Defence Analysis' started by NS52, Jun 10, 2017.

  1. NS52

    NS52 MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Recent statements of Chief Gen Bipin Rawat has sent the Defence Analysis world in tizzy, What actually? he meant by making this statement. Well going back to the strategy the 2 and half front war can only be sustained by 'Made in India', no amount of imports can suffice to carry on intense fight. It is well appreciated that Pakistan will crumble in matters of days and then troops would be free to be moved to the mountains.
    However, there is one catch and that boots have to be physically present till sability is restored in Pakistan. The issue are clear. From experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan human presence or infantry has to be physically dominating. It is post war stability that would be essential. Victories are squandered if you do not have post battle plan clear and are ready to put it in place in urgency.
    This scenario needs through analysis. I am in no doubt the scenario would have been enacted hunpteen of times. But history does not recommend or advice two front war for internal lines of communication country. germany in two World Wars.
     
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  2. Sathya

    Sathya Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    STABILITY IN PAKISTAN ?:offtopic:
     
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  3. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Pakistan- 1st front
    China-2nd front
    Internal insurgency- 1/2 front
     
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  4. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate Staff Member MODERATOR

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    Yes. Or we have continued instability on our western border as we move to northern borders.

    Imagine an unstable radicalised western border while fighting on northern border - a receipe for disaster!
     
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  5. Vyom

    Vyom Captain GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    Capture and hold approx 100-120 kms of territory from our borders to create a buffer zone and hold all refugees and all shit there. then creae a DMZ of 5 Km width from The IB towards west.. any unauthorized movement in the area must be forcibly neutralized.
     
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  6. Sathya

    Sathya Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    i cant believe we can stabilize Pakistan .. when they themselves are struggling to.
     
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  7. An Indian

    An Indian 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Do we really want to stabilize them or just fence them out and let them go to their jannat (after (nuclear) defanging them of course)?
    The other alternative is to forcibly convert all of them...
     
  8. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Two and Half Wars?
    Posted on June 10, 2017by Bharat Karnad
    [​IMG]

    Gorkha officers with the trademark Australian bush hat at a rakish tilt always evoke a sense of no-nonsense attitude to action, not little because of the fighting lore attending on the doughty hill men. The straight forward defence of Major Nitin Gogoi’s lashing of a protester to the grill of a vehicle in Kashmir, and the shrugging off of his comparison with the infamous Brigadier Reginald Dyer of the 1919 Jallianwallah massacre in Amritsar, was Gorkha stuff for the straight talking COAS General Bipin Rawat (5/11 Gorkha).

    But his other statement that “The Army is fully ready for a two and half front war” has induced some head scratching. No one doubts that the army can quickly rid the landscape of insurgents at will, if the brakes on its actions in J&K or in the northeast are removed by the government. Even with the AFSPA shackles, the army can do its job of denying the insurgencies the success they crave. So on the half front, there’s no issue.

    The Pakistan front too can be accounted for if all the army is called on to do is to continue doing what it has done since the 1971 War — just hold the border. However, should the army for whatever reason be ordered to wage war with Pakistan at full tilt, can it realistically do so? What will such a war entail at a minimum — that a large chunk of Pakistani territory be captured without Indian armour advancing too deep into Pakistan as to excite GHQ, Rawalpindi, into believing India is going for the jugular whence its possible consideration of the nuclear first use option. But can Indian land forces actually achieve even this limited penetration and occupation operation with the three strike corps having significant portions of their tank and mechanized vehicle fleets mothballed? Op Parakram was called off in 2002 in good part because the then army leadership could not assure the Vajpayee government the outcome it sought because of the generally poor levels of the war wastage reserve and war stock. Has the situation really improved all that much in the past 16 years? Given the mismanaged resources, in many respects it may have gotten worse — but that’s another story.

    With respect to China, Rawat found cover behind Prime Minister Modi’s anodyne statement that not a bullet had been fired in the last 40 years, and for good reason. The army is simply not in a position to fight off the Chinese People’s Liberation Army that is fighting downhill from their Tibetan stronghold. The border infrastructure — road and communications network, remains patchy and is no match for what’s on the other side. The program of infrastructure buildup won’t be completed, by one senior militaryman’s estimate, before 2022 at the very least. By Rawat’s own account, moreover, 17 Corps for offensive warfare in the mountains is still only on paper, and will take another three years before it is fielded. And then, the army will still be two offensive corps short of giving a good account of itself in war in terms of keeping the PLA guessing about what the mobile element in the three corps will do after the first shot is fired. With only one corps to worry about, it is simpler for PLA to tie up the mobile element of 17 Corps once it is deployed. In other words, a single offensive mountain corps will only marginally improve prospects in hard mountain fighting, notwithstanding the fact that the Indian defensive forces along the LAC are now prepared to engage in mobile warfare, rather than positional warfare that they were previously locked into.

    If this is the state of affairs with each of the fronts taken singly, the simultaneous activation of all the two and half fronts would be much less reassuring. And why is this not possible considering it involves the flowering China-Pakistan nexus?

    In the event, isn’t Rawat’s confidence of the army’s warfighting capabilities a bit misplaced, if not not entirely erroneous? Indeed, such unduly optimistic statements are misleading and may convince the Modi government into becoming even more complacent — complacency being the hallmark of the Indian policy establishment’s attitude to national security and military preparedness/readiness. It will also lull the people into believing that all’s well and there’s nothing to worry about on any count.

    The army in a Gorkha officer’s safe hands is a soothing proposition, except when the Chief’s prognosis fails to mesh with reality.




    Any thoughts everyone? @Hellfire , what do you think about this?
     
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  9. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate Staff Member MODERATOR

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    25-50 is the figure which is being looked at as a contingency planning in case of implosion of Pakistan, a high probability as ISIS winds down in Iraq and Syria and needs space to expand, and the relative ease of finding ideological cadre in Pakistani society permits ISIS to now start recruiting in Pakistani heartland.
     
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  10. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate Staff Member MODERATOR

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    Will give a detailed reply on this in a couple of days. Needs a thought ... but broadly speaking, nothing new in our posturing! This is how IA has been training and is trained, so ... not a big deal!
     
  11. NS52

    NS52 MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Without going into specifics and leaving thing for the present generation of thinkers and strategist, it is still unadvisable to open two fronts. Remeber the basic even US with all the support and might has still not been able to get hold of Iraq and Iran. it is not war but post war that is crucial in teo fronts war.
     
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  12. sunstersun

    sunstersun Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Fighting a war on two fronts is a terrible idea without allies. Unless Japan and USA are on the side of India, this is suicide.
     

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