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'US didn't see any reason for India to have 5,500-km range missiles'

Discussion in 'International Relations' started by lca-fan, Jan 31, 2017.

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Should India Test longer Range (10000-14000kms) Missiles (Full ICBM Capability) Or Not?

  1. Yes

    9 vote(s)
    56.3%
  2. No

    1 vote(s)
    6.3%
  3. Or Should India Stick To Just (5500-6500kms) Missiles Focusing Just China?

    5 vote(s)
    31.3%
  4. Will 5500-6500kms ICBM Be Enough To Deter China While Not Causing Anxiety To Our Western Friends?

    1 vote(s)
    6.3%
  1. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    'US didn't see any reason for India to have 5,500-km range missiles'
    IANS | New Delhi January 30, 2017 Last Updated at 20:54 IST

    The US always felt India had no reason to pursue a missile programme with a range beyond 5,500 km because it would be enough to target China and anything more than that would be useless, according to a declassified 1990 CIA document.

    The US assessment is borne out by India not yet deciding to go ahead with a missile beyond 5,000-km range of Agni V that was test fired recently even as reports suggest that a version of Agni V with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Warheads (MIRV) is being developed.

    The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in the partially declassified top secret intelligence assessment dated June 1, 1990, on the "Ballistic Missiles in India and Pakistan" said: "We see little benefit to India of developing ICBM-class (more than 5,500 km range) missile. A missile with considerable less range would be able to strike any target in China."

    Any Indian ballistic missile with beyond 6,000 km range would be able to reach parts of Europe -- a target Indianever considered in its strategic defence programmes.

    Most of the report has not been declassified.

    Talking about Pakistan's ballistic missiles, the report says: "Both Hatf (I-II) are flawed by the lack of a guidance system and, hence, have very poor accuracy... Pakistan is attempting to obtain Scud missiles technology from North Korea and is developing LD - a probably longer range system."

    "Pakistani officials have also been in contact with representatives of the European consortium that supervised the development of the 750-1,000 km range Condor II in Argentina. Production of the Condor II or another missile with a range longer than the Hatf II is likely in Pakistan by the mid-to-late 1990s."

    The report clearly shows the US did not make any serious effort in restricting Pakistan from violating the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Pakistan went on to develop Shaheen III with range beyond 2,500 km.

    India, on June 27, 2016, became 35th full member of the MTCR -- an informal and voluntary partnership among 35 countries, which prevent proliferation of missile technology over more than 300 km.
    http://www.business-standard.com/ar...e-5-500-km-range-missiles-117013001173_1.html
     
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  2. Ripcord322

    Ripcord322 Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Yeah....There have been some voices from the forces advocating '10,000 KM+ Missiles'...But I don't think the same is echoed in the Political Chambers....


    Anyway....We have our hands full with developing some decent MIRV capable ICBM's and SSBN's of ~ 6000 KM Range....Let's manage to do that first....



    Personally, I don't think there will even be the thought of testing True ICMB's (Something like...12-14 K KM's ) before the deterrent against China is built and ready....That alone in my opinion will take a couple of decades or more.....
    The biggest contributors to this time being development and production of a sizeable fleet of SSBN's as well as Development and Fabrication of adequate number of warheads and the missiles that carry them....



    Our 'Non-Demomstration' of a proper (200-250 Kt...) Thermonuclear Device is a different issue all together....



    Anyway..... Senior members....
    Are computer simulations enough for complete testing and approval of design of a Complex Thermonuclear Weapon...!?
     
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  3. Ripcord322

    Ripcord322 Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    @lca-fan

    Add a poll in this thread...To know to opinion of our members....As to what they think should be our priority going forward....Constructing a proper all round deterrent wrt China...Or Expanding the global reach of our missiles....


    We do have the capability to do both things.....But the question is about priority in allocation of funds....Scientific Man power and time....
    We are short on all three of those fronts...So we have to be forward thinking and careful...


    PS : My vote will go to 'an all round deterrent against China...'
     
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  4. defc0n

    defc0n 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    I said this before and I am repeating the same.
    India needs to focus on developing a good number missiles with a range of 6000 KM and deploy MIRVs.
    We have to make China feel the heat.
     
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  5. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Unless developing an ICBM is prohibitively expensive, we need to develop it. We do not need to develop a 10,000Km range missile, as we have no conflict with Europe and neither does Europe has any power to do harm to us, but 15000Km range missile so that we have the capability to hit USA, if and when needed. The reason for developing this capability are two fold:

    1. In the food chain of international relations, we are quite high up the order. For now, the top predator (USA) is trying to kill and eat trophic level 2 predator (China), but after China is gone, we (level 3) are next b'coz out national strength would grow large enough ,within a generation by natural progression, that we would become impossible to be controlled or manipulated.

    2. We should not discount the fact that USA could flip its shit and go full retard at some point. Currently there is a insecure narcissist (Trump) in white house surrounded by a Christian fundamentalist (Mike pence) and white supremacists (Bannon and Miller, with Bannon being on record that Trump is just a blunt instrument to bring back WS day of old and tear the curren establishments and institutions down) and is appointing people like Jeff sessions as AG who have stated that even if UD courts give an adversarial ruling on presidential order,they would enforce that order .What if these white supremacists decide one day to screw with India for no rhythm and reason? Mind you ,just 2-3 days ago, they and insulted, humiliated, and threatened whole nation (not country alone) of Mexico for no cogent reason or fault of Mexico. In these circumstances, having an ICBM capable of hitting any part of USA would be a very handy deterrent.
     
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  6. Ripcord322

    Ripcord322 Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Ah Ha...Yup.

    I am looking forward to...The K5/K6 SLBM's and The Next Class of SSBN's...
     
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  7. Ripcord322

    Ripcord322 Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    I loved your 'Eco-System Analogy' Sir...Hilarious... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


    Any way back to the topic...

    Oh..Brother..That will be expensive...The Development Part is one thing...But the upkeep and proper maintenance of launch sites/ platforms is expensive too...and again if we are to have a serious deterrent we will need new class of SLMB's and SSBN's more advanced than the so called 'Avinash Class' SSBN's and 'The K5/K6' SLBM's

    We will need something on the lines of...say,....Trident II D5 SLBM's and Columbia/Ohio /Class SSBN's....and boy is that expensive....not only will we need new shipyards...but billions of dollars...Billions.....and years if not decades of development.....


    But I agree with your point...There is merit to a Global Strike Platform...It's just a question of our financial...manufacturing...and scientific priorities...



    And...Personally I would love to see a 15-18 K KM Indian ICBM/SLBM fly....but....
    We as of now are not that resourceful to even think about a meaningful deterrent against the states.....


    Anyway.....
    Hopefully our China Deterrent will be ready in a couple of decades....That will be a very very solid boost to our Regional position..Then perhaps...w e might think about Global SLBM's and stuff...
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2017
  8. Immanuel

    Immanuel 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Technically, the Agni-5 can easily reach targets at 8000 km on a lighter load and hence it is already an ICBM, Agni-6 too for all purposes will be a ICBM with ranges of over 10K, only we will never advertise it.

    K-4 is will be K-5 will be more than adequate for our needs. Let's not be the kind of people who waste time and money weapons that aren't needed. Instead, let's make the ones we have to cater to the potential threats we face and then focus on making them more invulnerable using next gen countermeasures and technology.
     
  9. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Tech development take time. If we start developing tech for a full fleshed ICBM today, it would take a decade before we could field it.
     
  10. lca-fan

    lca-fan Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    Done
     
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  11. nair

    nair Guest

    Fine tuning the current missiles should be the focus....K4 and K5.... MIRV.. .... this should bd our focus.....

    By the way we are discussing a cable send on 1990....
     
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  12. defc0n

    defc0n 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    SLBMs are the way to go for India. Primarily because if SLBMs are working, deriving the land based version should be a cake walk.
    Further, the SLBMs are the most versatile and most protected deterrence to an aggressor.
    The stakes are quite high for China, if India deploys a respectable number of SLBMs which can wreak havoc in any part of China.

    K5/K6 should be India's top-most priority project now.
     
  13. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    @MilSpec @PARIKRAMA @Abingdonboy @Nilgiri @Rain Man @randomradio What is your opinion on this matter?

    I was browsing through some US based channels and for the first time I have seen such an irrational and unjustified hatred and malice as the one demonstrated by whites in USA (including some panelist of FoxBusiness channel) against Mexico ,outside of what Pakistani demonstrate on PDF. They really are deplorable who would take a real significant economic hit as long those 'wetbacks' take a bigger hit.

    We people always discuss that Pakistan is a rouge state which could flip anytime; but here in case of USA, white supremacists are running presidency indirectly and US president has emotional maturity of a 7 year old girl on sugar rush . I for one think that we should expand our nuclear program and build ICBMs on the low in order to have some insurance against USA going full tits up .
     
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  14. AbRaj

    AbRaj Captain FULL MEMBER

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    What is stupid in this decision????
    USA is for Americans and not for Maxicans.
    Every country has right and obligation to secure its border and protect its citizens from unwanted elements.

    BTW he is not going to stop trading with Mexico. He just wants renegotiation and better profits for USA.
     
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  15. Nilgiri

    Nilgiri Lieutenant IDF NewBie

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    Full blown ICBM is required to target Chinese forces effectively. In future they will not all be stuck in Chinese mainland and vicinity.

    US does not even come into the picture and they know it.

    This is a 1990 CIA document that is old news when the US was making its own threat perceptions about various countries including India.

    It is thus a perception, not an advise or order given to India etc...as to what India's priorities were.

    Much time has since elapsed and I am sure US top security elite and policy makers understand India quite better now.

    As for racists in US, please be more guarded in your analysis.....I find US to be very good and open country, many are just fed up with the US govt priorities almost exclusively lining with security of other countries and the globalist banking cartel. Trump is just an avenue/outlet/reactionary regarding this. Give him some time and judge him later.....just like you did with Obama. Its all I ask.

    In my full defence interaction at highest levels in select forums (dating from 90s), US defence community are very rational bunch. I came across just one potentially troublesome guy out of 100s I interacted with. The ratio in my experience was highest with Australians as far as troublesome behaviour in defence communities as far as inbuilt racism/bigotry goes.

    For general public its same story, few bad apples for sure in US, but majority are good accomodating people. The difference for me (being Indian) was very noticeable between Hong Kong (where I grew up) and US (when I first visited as a kid).
     

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