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Vyom's Musings : The Illusion of CPEC Prosperity - The Debt Trap

Discussion in 'South Asia & SAARC' started by Vyom, Nov 21, 2016.

  1. Vyom

    Vyom Captain IDF NewBie

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    So I have been reading through some literature regarding CPEC and this is what I found how Pakistan is getting itself into a circular debt cycle. which I hope will not turn into a spiral dept trajectory. also interestingly I found Pakistani negotiators missing on obvious points like they did on the FTA with China that resulted in decimation of local Pakistani Manufacturing as it could not compete with prices of Chinese products.

    So Here are my observations.

    1. It doesn't fit the definition of an Economic corridor. An economic corridor [sic] “connects hubs or nodes of economic activity along a defined geography” (Asian Development Bank). Hence, an empty road through a barren landscape connecting strategically important point A with strategically important point B 3,000 kilometers away does not fit the description. To be truly an economic corridor, the envisaged roads will need to connect demand (markets) with supply (production centers and clusters). The markets as well as production centers can be per-existing ones, or new ones that will spring up as the ‘network effects’ of the economic corridor take root. The Question is will the proposed China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will truly be an ‘economic’ corridor, or will it be a string of strategically important roads and a bunch of power projects. The Power projects are almost equal to the domestic demand that will be there when its implementation is over. When envisioning the future it is always a thumb rule to have surplus installed capacity. Further there are no domestic Power plant equipment manufactures in Pakistan that make Steam generators and Turbines (500 MW+ capacity). (Would be great if you guys could get some JVs with the Chinese, but alas)

    Given the timeline for completion, these power projects could possibly add reasonable generation capacity to the Pakistan national grid by 2017-18, but they would hardly provide any relief in terms of the fast-growing demand for electricity. And there is no silver lining for consumers as far as the cost of the electricity is concerned.

    2. It won't create local employment and capacity building. Chinese documents have already stated that the projects would cost more than a similar project in China because of the increased cost of bringing Chinese labour to Pakistan. Means all the wages and machinery deployment costs will flow back to Chinese pockets. The same way they have been doing it in Africa.

    3. The corridor's main purpose is to grant Chinese access to the Gulf as an alternative to the vulnerable sea route in the South China sea. Rest is all add on. No worthwhile investment can come in the Balochistan KP stretch. Punjab and Sindh may imagine an export based strategy but can anyone produce cheaper than China? Further, export led growth is dicey in a world where major economies are in the doldrums [Eurozone, USA and even China is becoming sluggish].

    4. The Karakorum Highway Route is Seismically active, snow laden for a little less than 6 months, and is very very very far away from China's consumption centers which lie in the far east. Its way cheaper to import via Ships to those areas, as for its energy requirements, China has gas pipeline links with central Asia, is making a super massive one from Russia. It is not going to be as dependent on gulf oil in the near future. So if the Chinese have any sense of economics and cost vs risk analysis, they will only keep this route as a fire escape. Highly expensive and risk laden.

    Pic 1 China population centers. :

    [​IMG]

    Pic 2 China-Central Asia Oil&Gas Pipelines

    [​IMG]
    5. So how is proposed "investment" planned. it could have been made sweeter by allowing Pakistan to trade in rupees and then arrange fro currency swaps that would help in Pakistan in increasing its Forex and increase trade footprint at the same time. Whereby Pakistan gets to pay in rupees rather than in US dollars or renminbi. Interestingly it has already been agreed that payments will be in US Dollars.

    6. The idea of becoming a 'trading' hub already has a competitor, its Dubai that allows trans shipments to all countries and is already established a business hub. For Gwader to become a competitor it will have to provide services at par with Dubai and better it, from day one. good luck. In view of the economic landscape cities have become prosperous like Singapore and Dubai is their location on sea trading routes which they have cultivated over decades. In view of the Iran Deal, West will get trading access to Central Asia Via Bandar Abbas and other Iranian ports (Chahbahar is not even in question here) by circumventing the instability, and insurgency of Afghanistan which they might go to... at a later date if the dust settle downs there. All possible from Iran.

    No country has become prosperous by converting itself into a big toll booth. good luck.

    7. China is making investments on which Pakistan has given sovereign guarantee of 18% return, meaning on investment of Rs 100 Pakistan will pay them back Rs 118 (that's in Compounded interest). In some cases its about 27.2 %.

    Example :-
    Sinosure is charging a fee of 7pc for debt servicing, which will be added to the capital cost of a project. For instance, the capital cost of a 660MW project at Port Qasim is $767.9m. But it goes up to $956.1m by adding Sinosure’s fee of $63.9m, its financing fee and charges of $21m, and interest during construction of $72.8m; a 27.2pc return on equity is guaranteed. Ironically, interest during construction is allowed at the rate of 33.33pc for the first year; 33.33pc for the second; 13.33pc for the third; and 20pc for the fourth year.

    How exactly this helps Pakistan? Beside the projects will be run on turnkey basis by Chinese companies who will employ Chinese manpower to accomplish it. Pakistan on the other hand will have to provide the Chinese security at its own cost. And all this is promised on whether the investments will materialize in the first place.

    I think Pakistan is better off running these projects by itself only then it will derive the benefit of the investments. If China can not provide aid money then it should provide loan, let Pakistan execute these projects. Also the interest should not be 18% it should be 5%. Apparently domestic lending rates in Pakistan is Cheaper than that of being given to that to China, If the government gave this incentive to local banks and businesses the benefit would have been much greater.

    In the end with 2016 of the repayment of International loans coming up. and with these debts to pay back Pakistan's coffers don't give much of a confidence.


    *Reproduced on demand @Kalmuahlaunda
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2016
  2. Butter Chicken

    Butter Chicken Captain FULL MEMBER

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    You are a jealous Indian who cannot digest success of CPEC,naali se dollar bahenge Insha Allah :homer:
     
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  3. indo786

    indo786 FULL MEMBER

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    From what I have read, Interest rates on most projects are about 1.6% for 90% of project cost. While it is 0% for Gawadar port estate. I don't know if this is true.
    And I think the way they have executed this project is really commendable , fast and precise with concrete plan.
    In fact at this speed it is more likely that in few years fed up by the lethargic Indian approach , Iran may handover the Chahbahar port to China.
    We have been just talking , While China is doing.
    While there is no doubt that all the projects that China will do, will benefit it more than its partner, but that is true for every such project. There are no free lunches.
    But it will definitely benefit the host country too, if it plays well.
    The infrastructure once created won't go anywhere, Good Infrastructure will bring more investment.
    And I don't believe in this debt trap argument, most developed countries have multitudes of debt. Untill and unless the debt money is used to do something productive , Pakistan doesn't need to worry about anything.
    I fear at the speed we are implementing DMIC, It is extremely slow.
    We have been just talking since the 2000's.
    Yet the real work is very less, there have been frequent changes in plan.
    Note that DMIC will also benefit Japan the major investor, they will get privileged treatment in awarding contracts.
    But Japan isn't a rising nation, it has stagnated and dosen't have the muscle that China has, thus it is really slow and bureaucratic regarding alloting loans.
    I just hope I am wrong.
     
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  4. Vyom

    Vyom Captain IDF NewBie

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    Okay. Few questions :
    Name one market that has the economic capacity to Give financial feasibility to CPEC ?
    China's NW (5.3% of China's population) has Purchasing capacity but it also has direct supply linkages from Central Asia for Gas and from Russia for Oil.

    They have executed the Project Quite well, how much of the investment has actually flowed into Pakistan ? and how much of it has flowed back to China (In form of wages and equipment) ? Its a plan spanning over 8 years. and there have been 4 annual inauguration of the project just this year.

    "Chahbahar will be handed over to China", NSTC is an Indian Iranian project with Russia as a key stakeholder What exact reasoning makes you think it Will be handed over to China ? (China has a "working" rail link to Europe why will it need Chahbahar?)

    You don't believe the Debt trap argument. There are people who don't believe the earth is round. Do the numbers. You do realize the Debt as long as it is serviceable isn't a problem. and Developed Countries don't have problem with it because of their assured productivity. Pakistan is no where close to being a Developed industrial country. If they could produce any thing more than a moped motors.

    Japan Doesn't have the "Muscle" (though I contest otherwise), They have deep pockets. And they aren't rising because they are already a developed Industrial Power, and did you miss PM Abe changing its Constitution a few years ago ?

    DMIC its separate issue if you want to talk on it do an analysis, post a thread, the entire fate of India Isn't dependent upon DMIC. We have been growing at steady 7% even without it. The Delhi Mumbai Belt today (without DMIC), isn't as brazenly devoid of Infrastructure and industry as that of Pakistan.

    Parallel, Roads are there (4-6 lane ones full concrete pavings), The entire belt has one of the best rail connectivity In India, string of Air ports, Ports (Nava Seva, Dahej, Porbandar, Veraval, Jaffarabad, Okha, Kandla, Mundra all rail Linked ports), Power Scenario (there is a surplus power capacity of 25,000 MW), apparently DMIC or Not, the entire stretch is highly productive (combined GDP of Maharashtra Gujarat and Rajasthan is almost more than twice of that of Pak).

    Last but not the least. Much of it India's own resources is being invested not Japanese, our own Business houses are there. Japanese investment is being sought to catapult it further.

    So while I cannot fathom Where (and how) this Equivalence can be drawn between India and Pakistan, whose oil reserves, today, are below the bare minimum strategic requirement. A delusional nation state which lacks any coherent thought for its existence and perhaps sees its future as China's concubine.

    My Hope is, I'll have a fine single malt scotch and a good Havana Cig as Pakistan capitulates its future to the Godless Communists of China.
     
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  5. sangos

    sangos Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Its China's road to the Indian Ocean period. pakistani are off limits from Gwadar, which is a PLA bastion.
     
  6. Levina

    Levina Guest

    Posted to twitter.
     
  7. kaykay

    kaykay 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    An economic Corridor where 80% investment/loan is allotted to power projects is hardly an economic Corridor. Its a big pie for their corrupt Gernails and paindu politicians to get fat money in bribe. It will soon turn out to be a big scam. Just give it some time.
     
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  8. R!CK

    R!CK 2nd Lieutant REGISTERED

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    The biggest difference between Chinese projects and projects taken up by other countries, only Chinese workers are used for these projects. Which means even employment opportunities are not created for a country's citizens in such big title projects. How many people are aware that China use prisoners for overseas infrastructure work as punishment? They are provided a stipend and a reduced sentence if they serve in any of China's overseas project. These are facts that prove that only country that gains out of business with China is China themselves. lol

    Good Day!
     
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  9. Levina

    Levina Guest

    Wow!


    Somehow in UAE, Chinese companies have a mixed crowd. Though I'm sure what you have said is right for south Asian and African countries where China gets more liberties.
     
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  10. R!CK

    R!CK 2nd Lieutant REGISTERED

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    We don't have Chinese infrastructure companies working in UAE for lease projects like in Pakistan and Africa, they might be doing government projects as a contractor which doesn't grant them any special liberty. I was talking about the labor level employment, not exactly high skilled fields and that too in these lease projects involving big Chinese investment.

    Good Day!
     
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  11. Levina

    Levina Guest

    Gotcha! :tup:
     
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  12. BlackOpsIndia

    BlackOpsIndia Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    @PARIKRAMA This deserve to be Sticky.

    Great writeup, covered the very basics which media never highlight. From long I was thinking to write something like this on CPEC but I may never have come closer to this :) Feeling my thirst to write on this topic is quenched, it is satisfying. These few points are very important and almost everytime absent from every discussion. It was so disappointing to see nobody asking these basic questions.
     
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  13. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Regarding CPEC, I have posted some basic information on another forum which got me a summary ban. There are 10-15 posts combined in one,and comparative data is little dated with simple calculations; so bear with me:

    1.Comparative cost analaysis of CPEC and Sea route for Eastern Seaboard of China:

    This was in response to Pakistanis boasting that Gwadar would become main trade route of China.

    Distance between Shanghai and Kashghar = 5121 Km

    http://www.distancesfrom.com/cn/distance-from-Shanghai-to-Kashgar/DistanceHistory/3966250.aspx

    Distance between Kashghar and Gwadar = 2747 Km

    http://www.distancesfrom.com/uz/distance-from-Kashgar-to-Gwadar/DistanceHistory/9759805.aspx


    Average Trucking cost per Ton per Km in China = 5 cents.

    http://www.worldbank.org/transport/transportresults/regions/eap/eap-china-output.pdf

    Average Trucking cost per Ton per Km in Pakistan = 1.8 cents.

    https://www.iisd.org/gsi/sites/default/files/ffs_india_irade_trucking.pdf

    These cost are of 2002 and would have become 7 cents for China and 3 cents for Pakistan, just by taking inflation into account.

    This is the most conservative calculation as I am not taking into account Hazard premium that nature of Terrain imposes on Pakistan (Karakoram Highway is rated world's fourth most dangerous highway http://travel.cnn.com/explorations/life/worlds-deadliest-roads-098394/ ) and Hazard premium that China has to pay for transporting good through Takla Makan Desert , Kulum Shan mountains range, and Altai Shan mountain range.

    But still let us calculate cost of transporting a Tonn of good from Shanghai to Gwadar.

    Cost incurred in Chinese territory = 0.07 X 5121 = $358.47

    Cost incurred in Pakistani territory = 0.03 X 2747 = $82.41

    So total cost from Shanghai to Gwadar for a tonn of goods= $440.88

    Now let destination port be Dubai.

    Cost of Transporting Dubai to Shanghai = $625 per TEU

    http://www.simic.net.cn/news_list.php?lan=en&id=368&flag=cnports&pname=shanghai&page=10

    Since standard 1 TEU= 21,600 Kg : Cost of Transporting 1 Ton via sea from Dubai to Shanghai = $28.93

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-foot_equivalent_unit

    Similarly cost from Karachi to Dubai for 1 TEU = $125 (rate for Gwadar are not available as port is not operational)

    http://www.businessdubai.com/freight/freight.asp

    Cost of Transporting 1 Ton from Karachi to Dubai = $5.787


    Total cost of Shipping a Ton from Shanghai to Dubai via Gwadar = $446.67

    Total cost of Shipping directly from Dubai to Shangahi = $28.93 which is 16 times less than that of Transporting via Gwadar.

    Heck Total cost of Transport from Gwadar to Chinese border is more than what would be required for Transport from Dubai to Shanghai.


    And this is not all. CPEC passes through Khunjareb Pass which remain open only from May 1 to December 31.

    http://www.dangerousroads.org/asia/pakistan/3334-karakoram-highway-pakistan-2.html

    Only a fool would believe that it is a main route to anywhere. This is just a backup route for China in case Malacca strait is blocked.


    2.Regarding Gwadar becoming Energy hub:
    China is constructing a pipeline from Gwadar to Nawabshah. It has lead to Pakistanis speculating that Gwadar is on path of becoming an energy hub:

    Energy route from where to where?

    If one look at the map properly, China borders Gas and Oil rich Central Asia and has three mega pipelines running from Central Asia to China, including world's longest pipeline.Of anything that China needs, the least thing that China needs in XinXiang is Energy. It could get ample amount of it just from across the border , some 100's of Km away.

    Why would it bother bringing oil and Gas through Gwadar? This when apart from sky high transport cost due to distance, it would also have to pay for Break-of-Bulk at Gwadar.

    If it want Energy for XinXiang, it could get it easily from CAR.If it want Energy for its Eastern Seaboard, it could easily get it from CAR, failing which transport via Ships would be more economical than any pipeline from Gwadar.

    [​IMG]

    Nawabshah District is not on Pak-China border. It is in Sindh nearly 900Km away Distance Between Gwadar Nawabshah, Gwadar Nawabshah Distance,Gwadar Nawabshah Road Distance, Distance From Gwadar Nawabshah , and 1896 Km away from Kashghar.

    [​IMG]

    This pipleline is not meant for China, and by charging Pakistan $3Bn for it, Chinese is robbing Pakistan blind.

    As for chances of this pipeline being extended to Kashi using existing pipelines in Pakistan:

    This is map of Pakistani pipelines:

    Not a single one of them ends anywhere near China border.

    [​IMG]
    Also, Pipelines are laid down for a specified capacity, thus unless Pakistanis stop using gas, there is no chance of any gas being transported to China. If CHina would want your gas, either it would have to lay down new pipeline, or upgrade your existing one.

    So....

    1.China has made no commitment of extending existing Pakistani Pipelines to its border.

    2.China has made no commitment of upgrading existing pipeline.

    3.China has only committed itself to build a pipeline which does not even come up 1/4 the distance between CHinese and Pakistani border.

    4.Building any Oil or Gas pipeline from Gwadar, when Energy rich CAR and Russia is just 100 Km away from Xinxinag, does not make any economic sense.


    YET, Pakistanis think that Gwadar would serve as an Energy hub!! [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]



    3.Regarding time taken for transporting anything from Gwadar to east China:

    This was in response of Pakistanis claiming Gwadar to be time efficient.

    Let's calculate time. In order to give you a leeway, I am expecting that a Truck would not stop anywhere (No rest for drivers, no checkpoints, no fuel or repair break) and assume that a Truck runs 24 Hours at 30Kmph, and I am neglecting time it would be needed to transfer goods in Gwadar.

    Time required for Travel = 262 Hours = 11 Days.

    Time required for transport of a container from Dubai to Karachi = 5 days

    http://www.businessdubai.com/freight/freight.asp

    Total time required for overland transport when your drivers and port handlers are superman = 16 days.

    Time required to transport a container from Dubai to Shanghai via sea = 15 Days.

    http://www.theodmgroup.com/2010/09/17/calculating-container-shipping-time/


    This was an outlier calculation.

    Let's be realistic.

    Assume that a driver drives for 12 hour per day, it would take and on average take a day extra to go through customs and refuelling stop.

    It would take him 91.57 hours to reach Kashghar, which would be equal to 7.7 days or 8.7 days taking pit stops into account.

    Let's assume that it takes only a day to transfer cargo from a Pakistani to a Chinese truck. The time spent before that Truck moves towards CHina is 9.7 Hours.

    That Truck would take 170 Hours to reach SHanghai from Kashghar. ie 14 days of driving and assuming two days for pit stops, 16 days.

    Now we assume that Gwadar system is as efficient as that of Karachi, it would take 6 days to clear import formalities.

    http://www.mehrancorporation.com/clearance.php

    Thus the total time it would need to transport goods from Dubai to Shanghai via Gwadar would be 37 days compared to 15 days it would take to reach Dubai from Shanghai via Malacca.

    Even reaching border of China-Pakistan would take more time (21 days vs 15 days) than transporting a container from Dubai to remotest part of Chinese seaboard.

    4.This about significance of Gwadar for Western China:
    This happened when Pakistanis started (NO! NO! This is only for Western China. We dindu nuffing about Eastern Seaboard).

    North-West China is underdeveloped because it is a desert and no one lives there.

    This is climate map of China.See that BWk there. It means cold desert.

    [​IMG]


    Or have a look at more comprehendable Physical Map.

    [​IMG]

    Note those two Deserts Taklamakan and Gobi. Also note Tibetan plateau just south of it.They lie adjacent to your border with China.


    Here is population density map of China.

    [​IMG]

    Practically, no one lives in West, North West, and South-West China. Therefore it is not well developed. Not because there is lack of highways there.

    CPEC could not help develop that area. You cannot develop an area where no one lives.



    5.This in response to Pakistani boast that it would serve 300 million people in Eastern China

    Following provinces are close to CPEC

    1. XinXiang: Area 1664900 Sq Km; Pop 22.09 million

    2. Qinghai: Area 720,000 Sq km; Pop 5.58 million

    3. Gansu : Area 425,800 Sq Km; Pop 25.64 million

    4. Inner Mongolia: Area 1183,000Sq Km; Pop 24.82 million

    5. Tibet: Area 1228400 Sq Km; Pop 3.145 million

    Total area of these provinces = 5222100 Sq km. This is 54% of Total area of China , and an area 6.6 times that of Pakistan; while its population is just 81 million which is 6% of Chines population and less than half (0.44 times) of Pakistani population.This is the extent of how sparsely populated Western part of China is.Pakistan share border with Takla Makan desert of China.

    A Highway and Economic corridors brings prosperity when Economic depression of a region is due to that region being cut off from rest of country. In this case, underdevelopment is due to geographical factors, not due to infrastructure factors. Deserts, cold arid Plateaus, and mountains reduce your Economic potential (unless you harness them for tourism like Switzerland).

    You could not put up factories in desert. You could not built cities in desert (Las Vegas would not count as that city exist because of Hoover dam). An area with such low population density does not have consumer base to build consumption driven economy. You could not build service industry in desert ,or any other low population density area because there is not enough qualified labour at any place.

    6.This to prove that CPEC serving even western China is a daydream:


    What does Western China has to do with your APEC?

    CPEC is not airdropping in Western Qinghai so that it would have same effect on all of Western China; it is joining China in North-West corner of China ie Western corner of XinXiang (no 10). The only provinces that it could affect are no 10 (XinXiang) and its neighbours no9 (Tibet) ,no 8 (Qinghai) , no 7 (Gansu) in Western China, and no 4 (Inner Mongolia) in Northern China.

    I have already counted all these provinces.And I am being generous here. XinXiang itself is so large that your corridor has no chance of affecting even its neighbours.

    I think this problem that is shown by many poster in this thread arise from the fact they could not fathom that some provinces (mostly in Western China) are many times larger than even Pakistan itself. XinXiang is 2.1 times larger than Pakistan, Tibet is 1.54 times larger, Inner Mongolia 1.48 times larger, Qinghai equal to Pakistan, and Gansu half of Pakistan. You people seriously think that CPEC would be used by people two province separated from Kashghar!!!!

    Probably Pakistanis do not understand that Eastern part of Western China is further away from Pakistan that even Europe!

    For example capital of Shaanxi (Taiyuan) is as far away from Islamabad by air (3559 Km) as Ankara (3600 Km)

    I am yet to understand this optimism of serving Eastern part of Western China.

    let's do some analysis. I am calculating Islamabad so that you could get a grasp over distance as Ankara is 4400 Km away from Islamabad by road. and All distance henceforth are by road.


    No 3 (Shaanxi), Capital (Taiyuan).

    Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4904.3 Km

    Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Tianjin)=943 Km

    Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6644 Km


    No 6 (Ningxia), Capital (Yinchuan)

    Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4337 Km

    Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Tianjin)= 1200 Km

    Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6077 Km

    No 1 (Chongquing) , No capital

    Distance of Chongquibg from Islamabad = 5069 Km

    Distance of Chongquing from nearest Chinese seaport = 0 Km. After construction of Three Gorges Dam, barring largest cargo Ship, Ocean going ships could sail upto Chongquing.

    But still distance between Chongquing and Shanghai is 1689 Km

    Distance of Chongquing from Gwadar = 6843 Km

    no 4 (Guzihou) , capital (gulyang)

    Distance of capital from Islamabad = 5459 Km

    Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Beihai) = 796 Km

    Distance of capital from Gwadar = 7199 Km

    No 5 (Yunnan) , capital (Kuming)


    Distance of capital from Islamabad = 5859 Km

    Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Beihai) = 1024 Km

    Distance of capital from Gwadar = 7635 Km


    No 2 (Sichuan) , capital (Chengdu)


    Distance of capital from Islamabad = 4976 Km

    Distance of capital from nearest Chinese seaport (Chongquing) = 326 Km and (Shanghai) = 1968 Km

    Distance of capital from Gwadar = 6716 Km


    All these Western provinces that you dream Gwadar would serve are farther away from Gwadar than Western Europe is from Pakistan by Road. Distance between Islamabad and Berlin by road is 6353 Km , and of Paris is 7300 Km; nearly of the order of distance of Gwadar from any of Eastern provinces of Western China.

    Anyway China does not even intend to use Gwadar for these provinces. As another poster has pointed out, it already has a corridor via Myanmaar (Yunnan border Myanmar) for redundancy.

    7.Answer to why Westren China is not developed and could not be developed:

    The reason that XinXiang (province that you border) is not developed is because most of XinXiang is covered with Takla Makan desert (Desert Pakistan border) Tien Shan range; Inner Mongolia is not developed because most of Inner Mongolia is covered with Gobi desert. Quinghai is not developed because most of its area is mountainous with Kulun Shan, ALtun shan and Bayan Har shan mountain ranges. Gansu is not beveloped because its area is covered with Gobi desert and Quilian Shan mountain range.Tibet is not developed because it is a barren cold plateau.


    These places have a low population density because of geographical limitations. Desert and Mountains never support high population, and this is a basic economic rule that low population areas never have high growth potential (because of less number of producers and consumers). Barring discovery of oil, Desert remains civilization backwater, irrespective of how many road you build since their population supporting capacity is limited by some very basic factors, FOOD and WATER. Even if you transport food at great cost in this area, you would still have no water to support a large settlement.

    Help yourself with China's physical map.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2016
  14. BlackOpsIndia

    BlackOpsIndia Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    First of all where did you get this? Did you write this all?! I too created some maps regarding the distance and time and cost. All the way from Shanghai to Gawader both by sea and road and I felt tired, I dont know from where you get this much courage to get going for a topic of Pakistan and China :D

    Only one caveat, China is not at war with India cuz if Malacca is blocked and India is a party to war than CPEC will be destroyed by IAF, it wont be of any help. You dont need much to destroy a road in mountains and its rendered irreparable for long.
     
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  15. MilSpec

    MilSpec Mod MODERATOR

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    Very detailed analysis. great post.

     
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