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War clouds over India

Discussion in 'World Economy' started by ArmChairGeneral, Sep 7, 2013.

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  1. ArmChairGeneral

    ArmChairGeneral Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    There are conditions developing that are not favourable to peace in South Asia.

    1. US is withdrawing next year from Afghanistan. If Iraq is an advance indicator of events to come, we may see severe bloodshed in Afghanistan post withdrawal. This will provide ISI an opportunity to push Taliban into Kashmir, as Taliban would need funding for its war, which can only come through masters that foster terrorism.

    2. India has focussed more on strategic side, and less on conventional side in the last 10 years. This has created gaps in the conventional capability. The gaps in artillery and air defence are quite severe. This has created a window of opportunity for the adversaries.

    3. India has hesitated in production and deployment of strategic missiles. The storage areas for the missiles are not ready even 15 years after nuclear tests. The number of missiles and warheads produced is much below required deterrence levels.

    4. The adversaries have modernized their equipment in the required quantity but India has lagged behind.

    5. USA and the West are under severe financial pressure due to which their ability to maintain status quo has declined. Old disputes are flaring up again as West's influence has begun to wane.

    6. West has become dependent on Fanatical States like Saudi Arabia for continuation of its financial system. China has gained undue leverage over USA by buying more than three trillion dollars worth of US Federal bonds. These factors affect West's support for India in an adverse situation.

    7. India's traditional friend Russia has got boxed in geographically, and its elite no longer support a strong relationship with India that existed in Soviet time. Russia cannot be expected to rescue India in a bad situation.

    8. Basically India stands alone - friendless. India does not realize that.

    I fear that India may face a war between late 2014 to early 2016.

    I would like an informed and unbiased discussion on this issue.
     
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  2. TSUNAMI

    TSUNAMI Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    I would like to ask senior members.... If Modi comes to power what are the diplomatic option he have to contain China????
     
  3. Himanshu Pandey

    Himanshu Pandey Don't get mad, get even. STAR MEMBER

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    I too believe that there will be a war and india stand alone in this but time will be post-2020 as several years are required for china to mordernise its air force and getting comfortable on carrier.

    there is no diplomatic option left apart from delaying the war till we are ready and modi will follow this
     
  4. TSUNAMI

    TSUNAMI Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    Yar wo to mere ko bhi pata hai.....

    We don't have any option accept delaying THE WAR but it can't be in the same way as MMS is doing it. You know ModiJi have diff. image and he have to take aggressive gesture against china.
    Question is how.... He also can't allow army to brake ceasefire. Now how you can stop them from continuing what they are doing now on border without even firing a bullet.

    I hope my question is clear??
     
  5. Soumya

    Soumya Major STAR MEMBER

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    Only India can do how they are doing now. Just infiltrate into their territory and put a camp there and lets see what they do. If they fire we have enough reason to fire at them when they look at our territory.
     
  6. TSUNAMI

    TSUNAMI Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    Might be a good option but infiltrating and putting a camp in china is not as easy as doing it India as they have more numbers of soldiers who are consistently doing aggressive patrolling and have better surveillance...

    We can sale weapons to their enemy nation or can have joint development of weapons with Japan(If Russia does not allow us to sell tech like Bramhos).
    That might bring them on table for talks.
     
  7. Himanshu Pandey

    Himanshu Pandey Don't get mad, get even. STAR MEMBER

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    yes your question is clear buddy... all I can think of is forcing and threatening china on trade front by imposing new taxes or by talking about imposing new taxes, creating the much awaited mountain strike core, deploying guns and helis near to china and then providing indian forces with more APC to do secure round is there but there is something else which will be done.. please give me some time to think and analysis it may be I can find a answer
     
  8. Soumya

    Soumya Major STAR MEMBER

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    What I am trying to say when they are putting tents in our territory do the same in their territory at that time. Or cut off the supply route. Or just cordon them off and don't allow them to get out of there. But we need strong will power of our politicians.
     
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  9. TSUNAMI

    TSUNAMI Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    1. Imposing new taxes is a good idea.
    2. Mountain Strike core, I thought it would be working after 2017, and ArmChairGeneral has given time period of 2014-16. May be I am wrong
    3. Helis we don't have much options because LCH will not be ready before 2015 so we are not gonna have it in big numbers before 2018 at least. Our only option is Rudra not even Apache bcz god know when we will get them.
    4. APC what is that?? :tongue1: (As you know me thoda kaccha hu)
    5. We don't have much MBRLs not much artillery guns and howitzers and will not get many soon other then M777 as Army don't want to support local players. :hitwall:
    6. Even if he sign Rafale deal just after coming to power this fighter will not make any diff. before 2020.
    7. Nirbhay is not ready yet and will not be ready before 2017 so again our only option is Bramhos and that too in small numbers.(I don't know actual number :evilgrin:)

    Overall I don't think that right now we have something from which chinkies should fear. We need some good international friends but not like USA and also not Russia. What are our options now.

    We all like to think what we will be, but this is a question abt where we are today?
     
  10. The Drdo Guy

    The Drdo Guy Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    The war is inevitable but no country can afford a full fleged war these days.The war will be of short duration like kargil war but the damages would be sever for both sides.The fire power of both china and pak has incresaed by the time and which will ultimately result in higher number of casualities.As per my speculation the time frame is going to be around 2018-2019 not earlier than that.
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2013
  11. omya

    omya Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    ha ha :lol:
     
  12. TSUNAMI

    TSUNAMI Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    Yes but in that short duration war with china if modi loose some part of our territory then it will be disaster for him. Sara bigada kiya congress ne nuksan ka bhanda Modi ke sar.
     
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  13. The Drdo Guy

    The Drdo Guy Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    come on sir,this is the truth.
     
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  14. Soumya

    Soumya Major STAR MEMBER

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    1. Good Idea. Basically impose more tax on electronics item.
    2. Mountain strike corps will come only after 2017/18 period as it will take more than 6 years to establish a fully capable armed corp.
    3. That's true. Govt needs to speedy the process of acquisition.
    4. APC means armed personal carrier like BMP-2.
    5. We lack in artillery in a big way. So much corruption that army did not buy a single piece of artillery after bofors scam.
    6. If we sign Rafale deal next year we may get 1st squadron on 2017. And from 2018 hal will start assembling lets guess 8-10 aircraft per year then we may have close to 50 aircrafts of this type in 2020.
    7. Brahmos is deployed in large numbers. Yes we lack range but we have a potent platform. Also air lunched variant and brahmos-2 coming up.
     
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  15. The Drdo Guy

    The Drdo Guy Captain SENIOR MEMBER

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    if you can belive me then we are not going to give up this time.i agree that our prepardness is not at par with the prepardness of china but it's not a simple task for china to come and accquire indian land by force.
     
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