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War clouds over India

Discussion in 'World Economy' started by ArmChairGeneral, Sep 7, 2013.

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  1. ArmChairGeneral

    ArmChairGeneral Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    You must understand the objectives. China does not want to take over India. China's intention is to weaken India enough that India no longer challenges it in IOR (Indian Ocean Region).

    China can take the disputed territory by force, and help Pakistan take Kashmir by force. If China succeeds, India will be pressurized and India's strategic goals will be crushed.

    China does not have to march into Delhi.

    However China can instigate Pakistan and give it the means to destroy critical infrastructure of India using nukes. Maybe we also damage some of Pakistan, but we can hardly act against China. Our leaders will tremble in their boots even at the thought of nuking China.

    Our politicians are weak. We have never responded properly even to Pakistan. Examples are many -> Sikh insurgency fomented by Pakistan, Kashmir terrorism fomented by Pakistan, a number of bombing and other terrorist acts in India. What has India done to Pakistan?


    China has supported extremism in Assam and Nagaland through Myanmar and Thailand. This is a known fact.

    China has built more than one dozen airbases in Myanmar. It has also courted Nepal and Sri Lanka, so much that these two countries are no longer under India's influence. Now Bhutan is being courted by China.

    You may not agree, but India has been surrounded.

    India has nukes, but stupid 'no first use policy' means India can never have effective deterrence. While a government official may assure us that India is capable of 'massive response' to any nuclear attack, several foreign analysts doubt India's nuclear posture and capability. India is yet to create secure missile sites near borders. There are a number of other problems including command chain, that may come in the way of India's nuclear response.
     
  2. S K Mittal

    S K Mittal Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    [MENTION=10184]ArmChairGeneral[/MENTION] well put post
     
  3. ArmChairGeneral

    ArmChairGeneral Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    You are probably a young man. I appreciate your optimism.

    India has grown BUT with a lot of structural problems. The biggest being that every facet of our economy is dependent on imports.

    The endemic corruption, lethargy and government socialism has meant that Indian industry is NOT competitive, except in sectors like software which does not need much infrastructure.

    Let me give you some examples - My office in Gurgaon (software export facility) had to run diesel generators 24x7 as power given by electricity board was erratic and fluctuated. Water had to be brought by tankers. This for a facility right on the border of Delhi.

    Just having people is not enough. More important is to be able to use these people for the good of the nation.

    I must admit that many things have improved. But remember we live in a competitive world. While we sleep, somebody else will come and take our bread. This is how it happens.

    The neglect of infrastructure and more important new age industries like micro-electronics is a very serious problem for India.
     
  4. layman

    layman Aurignacian STAR MEMBER

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    Yep am jus 10 yrs Old, yet own a couple or more of multi million dollar companies based in 4 continents, But i think personal assessment is irrelevant.

    Anyways, Yes we do have structural problems, infra issues. But nothing is lost. May be for the past decade we have been sitting ideal. But there is scope of development in right hands.

    Issues at your office is the negligence of the GoI from providing proper infrastructure, that is why manufacturing sectors have contracted and in limbo. GoI has made India from being a manufacturer to off-shelf customer oriented economy.

    Anyways we can rebuild it at faster pace. Jus that Investors needs confidence in Policies of India and Investment if safeguarded would be worth every penny for Indians.

    Do we have enough capabilities to expand, i think yes we do have it is jus that we need proper active GoI not some lame govt. as such current GoI.
     
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  5. ArmChairGeneral

    ArmChairGeneral Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    *** What can India do to avoid getting crushed by evil designs of China ***

    1. It is time to rid this country of stupid socialism. USSR broke, China silently converted to capitalism, but India is still socialist. Will not work.

    2. Government must come out of running factories at the fastest speed possible. The PSUs have to go.

    3. For military equipment, the government must give projects to the private sector ASAP, so that they can use civilian infrastructure for producing military goods. Tanks, IFVs, artillery, even LCA should be given to private sector immediately.

    4. Use beg, borrow and steal to get stuff. Buy second-hand howitzers on the international market wherever available. Buy vehicles and aircrafts from USA, Europe etc, for example Mirage 2000 fighters from France that it wants to retire. USA can easily give India hundreds of F-16 as it needs funds for F-35. Even older planes like Mirage 2000 and F-16 will do wonders for India if a war starts.

    5. Use India's industrial capacity to the full - private, public wherever its exists to equip the soldiers.

    6. Increase military recruitment massively. Triple the number of officer intake. Bring back retired officers to train new recruits.

    A lot more can be done. Young guys like you can suggest more.
     
  6. ArmChairGeneral

    ArmChairGeneral Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Layman, you must remember that a war will not come at the time of India's choosing.

    The country has to be ready all the time.

    The world is going down very quickly, such conditions have always created major conflicts in the past.

    US/Europe are suffering from major economic problems.
    The middle-east is burning.
    Old problems are flaring up in many regions.

    The current international system has become increasingly fragile.

    My problem is I do not see seriousness from Indian leaders - government and military alike. Not good.

    Anyway about Army's inept attitude towards equipment it buys:

    You can see tanks, BMP, Air Defense Systems standing in open at major army bases. Not even shade. An officer will keep his Rs 5 lakh car in garage, but a Rs 20 crore tank has to stand in the open, subject to all the effects of weather and dust.

    The Military has built family accommodation and golf course like crazy, on whatever land they could find, but simple open sheds for tanks have not been built.

    Till 2003, all ammunition was kept in the open on concrete plinth, covered by tarpaulin. This for ammunition worth hundreds of crores in each depot.

    As many depot fires destroyed ammunition (suspected sabotage), the government was forced to build blast-proof storage. Now all forward areas have such depots.

    So my conclusion is that army is not serious. Army officers take it just any other government service, where people join for 'perks', not for serving.
     
  7. layman

    layman Aurignacian STAR MEMBER

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    I think if India is brilliant enough i think they can choose the time of war.
    Anyways there is no war hanging over the head, So there is no need to panic now.

    And you are right on the seriousness of the govt. and partly also corrupt military elites. And yes you can see lot of discrepancies in their purchases basically ruled by kickbacks.
    And Military didnt have proper directive or lost focus. If MoD is a lame stooge what do you expect in the terms of accounting.

    GoI have been given mandate for a decade and India has lost a lot. No point in crying over what is split. Nothing can be done now other than lament and bang ourselves for voting them to power for 2 consecutive terms.

    But It is still not time to hit the Panic Button now. And lemme clarify if UPA (No chance of getting another term) gets another term sure You can hit all the buttons what ever you want...

    :rofl:
     
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  8. ArmChairGeneral

    ArmChairGeneral Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    ** Some good point I could think of **

    1. Massive modernization of automobile industry, which can help defence sector a lot, if needed.
    2. Greatly improved army infrastructure in Kashmir, as a result of insurgency, which will help it hold territory. The infrastructure includes roads, helipads, airstrips, army and para-military bases, ammunition depots etc.
    3. Improved airbase at Leh can help massively in defending Ladakh, if used imaginatively. The airstrips at Kargil and Thoise can support fighters if needed.
    4. In the north-east, a lot has been achieved regarding political stability, thus creating a class of people with stake in the continuation of Indian rule. However India may need passage rights from Bangladesh if it has to defend Arunachal Pradesh successfully in an intensive war. India's diplomacy will be at test here.
    5. The reservation and socialism has brought some benefits as well, as the newly enabled classes have a strong vested interest in continuation of Indian democracy. While this may not provide soldiers (how many SC/STs serve?), it may improve internal political stability.
    6. And biggest is USA's increasing fear of China. USA may provide the equipment India may need in emergency. However it remains to be seen if Mr Modi is acceptable to USA.
     
  9. S K Mittal

    S K Mittal Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    I totally agree wid u.
     
  10. ArmChairGeneral

    ArmChairGeneral Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    I think the threat is very serious. You cannot discount the incursions and intensive military exercises in TAR.
    China has been very active in giving key weapons to Pakistan in recent years.

    I think it is a cultural thing. India will not wake up until it is too late - like Tawang is overrun.
     
  11. Vyom

    Vyom Captain IDF NewBie

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    Okay I mostly agree with all of your statements, but "India will not wake up untill its too late - like Tawang is overrun." is bit of an exaggeration.

    I do regard the Situation as serious, I also agree that we should prepare as if it were to happen tomorrow, your message that we are under-prepared or extremely under-prepared is well under stood and well taken. But May I say that your paranoia of the Chinese is highly overrated. There have been confrontations but the escalation is being avoided by both sides. China Asserts itself In this way is well known. and it is putting pressure on India to resolve the disputes, but in all my knowledge the way it is being done does seem a build up for military action but that is it, it ends at 'seeming'.

    Even if the initiation of upgrade of military hardware happens today itself. It will take considerable time for it to get consolidated. Meanwhile, if China attacks by the numbers alone, we don't stand much chance, so I hope we can come up a better battle plan. Rest as on date, nothing much can be done.
     
  12. ArmChairGeneral

    ArmChairGeneral Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Vyom,

    My message is positive. I said multiple times that India can prepare even now if it musters the political will. India has the people, the industrial base, and infrastructure to respond forcefully to such a challenge.

    I am very worried about unneeded delays in artillery and IFV procurements. Now the best of the world are available, still nothing is moving.

    Army needs a good number of sniper rifles and anti-material rifles. These things will go a long way in defending the borders. Our own IFG/LFG can be mounted on trucks to provide fire support to quick reaction troops. There is no lack of options. In fact Army never had it so good. I do not know why things do not move.
     
  13. Vyom

    Vyom Captain IDF NewBie

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    This is the exact reason along with scared bureaucrats and red tape. To add to it Elite Military corruption. They Ned a Leadership that would just give a nice message "oof your bums and to your work".

    All the leadership changes, hinges on the 2014 General Elections. I would love to see Gen V K Singh as the defense minister, He can understand India's Military needs better than anyone.
     
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