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What becomes of Brexit now?

Discussion in 'Europe & Russia' started by A_poster, Jun 10, 2017.

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What becomes of Brexit now?

  1. No Brexit.

    3 vote(s)
    15.0%
  2. Hard Brexit.

    12 vote(s)
    60.0%
  3. Soft Brexit

    5 vote(s)
    25.0%
  1. A_poster

    A_poster Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Tories have got 318 out of 650 seats, which are 8 short of simple majority, but have formed government with DUP, probably only party that is willing to support Tories. This raises a question: What becomes of Brexit?

    BBC people are touting defeat of Tories as a referendum against Brexit and demanding second Brexit referendum. Other are saying that hard Brexit is dead, and only thing that could happen is soft Brexit in which UK keep its borders open, remains in economic union, but withdraws from European parliament.


    I have always maintained that Brexit would be bad for UK, but soft Brexit would be worse in comparison to hard Brexit. Bargaining position of France and Germany has strengthened as result of this election, but it would be foolish for them to try to keep UK in EU. With UK in EU, political project of EU would never become viable, for good or bad, as UK was both a roadblock in EU integration, and a moderating voice of EU groupthink.
     
  2. randomradio

    randomradio Mod Staff Member MODERATOR

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    Soft Brexit will only come at the cost of free movement, which completely destroys the very fabric of Brexit. Hard Brexit is the only Brexit.

    Brexit cannot "brexist" without Hard Brexit. UK's brexistance is now in question.
     
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  3. BMD

    BMD Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Still goes on as normal. DUP are actually in favour of a 12.5% corporation tax, which would nicely offset tariffs and the shift in the polls was entirely to do with the stupid social care reform proposal, nothing to do with Brexit. The SNP has now called off their bid for a second referendum of Scottish independence, having lost 40% of their seats and only got 1/3rd of the vote, so that issue is resolved.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results/scotland

    DUP is in favour of no passport checks between NI and ROI, which is not a problem and entirely down to agreement between UK and ROI. DUP would prefer no customs between NI and ROI but is also staunchly against giving in to EU ransom demands and also opposes both Brexit fees stated to date.

    Garbage, they had a huge lead in the polls even in full knowledge of Brexit, the moment they fell off the cliff edge was the social care reform proposal, which stated that old people needing social care would have the cost subtracted from their estate upon death with no stated cap on maxium payments. Basically a 'hi, I'm gonna take your house policy'. I struggled to get my own parents to vote Conservative after that little political A-Bomb. All this really means is that that act probably won't get passed, or the cap with be extremely low, which is a good thing.

    I'm not for hard Brexit but I reserve it as an option if the EU doesn't get sensible.
     
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2017
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  4. A_poster

    A_poster Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    But soft-Brexit means open borders, being part of European custom union, abiding by EU human right laws, and paying your contributions; while having no say in how EU would be run.

    I see soft-Brexit as a lose-lose deal for UK. Why renege your seats in EU parliament,when you anyway have to abide by every rule of EU?
     
  5. BMD

    BMD Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    There are different levels of hard Brexit. The hard-Brexit I was talking about was a 'no deal Juncker, and you win £15bn of tariffs on EU imports to the UK for being silly, Tusk we're taxing all remittances to your country at 30% and nobody who hasn't worked here for at least 4 years is getting any benefits and we're putting in a claim with international courts for 25% of all EU assets based on our net financial contribution.'

    There will be no open-borders in any version of Brexit. That is a path that's been concreted over completely in political terms. It's unsaleable to the public. A soft-Brexit would be something like the UK agreeing to fund out the current MFF and continue funding projects where there are mutual interests (like ITER) and maybe pay a small administerial fee for a free trade arrangement of some kind.
     
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  6. somedude

    somedude Captain FULL MEMBER

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    The DUP isn't in favor of closing down the border with Ireland, because even as crazy as they are, they don't want to start The Troubles again. So May is going to have to negotiate some sort of thing where there's open border only with Ireland, and that's going to be really hard.
     
  7. BMD

    BMD Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    In terms of people, it's only down to the UK and ROI and the border will remain open, it's just that non-UK/non-ROI citizens won't automatically have a right to work or reside in NI. Customs may or may not come into it but if would only involve relatively light checks and only if there's no trade deal. If the DUP becomes too obstructive it'll go to a second election.
     
  8. Guynextdoor

    Guynextdoor Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    UK will nto finish negos on time since people like @BMD will remain unfocussed and digress. End result time lapse and hard Brexit.
     
  9. Guynextdoor

    Guynextdoor Major SENIOR MEMBER

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    They don't care about you anymore. They just want you out.
     
  10. BMD

    BMD Lt. Colonel ELITE MEMBER

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    Good.

    I also find it strange that India of all places doesn't understand why people don't like being governed by external organisations.
     

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