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Why I love the idea of China in Pakistan!

Discussion in 'South Asia & SAARC' started by Hellfire, Nov 28, 2017.

  1. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate THINKER

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    - Hellfire

    28 Nov 2017, www.indiandefence.com


    I love this plan, absolutely. Indeed I am ecstatic at the very thought of it. Nothing more could be a wish coming true for me in the context of Pakistan, than this. Before you go up in arms against me and label me a Communist or a Pakistan sympathizer, let me clarify that I am an apolitical atheist, but guilty of being a Pakistan sympathizer.

    Scandalized by my claims of being a Pakistani Sympathizer? Some of you may now say 'ah, we always suspected it' and some of you would be "I knew it! See, wasn't it as I said, he is a Pakistani sympathizer?' in other forums too! But I am a humanist too. And nothing is more deplorable than seeing a nation of 208 Million people approximately (as per Census 2017), suffer at the hands of a few radicals at Faislabad Interchange and at the hands of a weak political structure which has given them nothing more than poor economic development, increasing security challenges to it's own existence as a State (paradoxically due to it's need to enhance it's own security by following certain policies) and an uncertain future to look forward to.

    My approach, antithetical to the official approach of the Government of India, is purely a selfish approach taken by me to argue a case for Indian Security. And I would seriously enjoy it, the idea, being emulated all over the country itself, and not merely along a stretch of CPEC (indeed it is being emulated as we speak). My love for this plan has the admixture of a potential for enhanced security and stability of Pakistan as a Nation (thereby insuring Indian security).

    A larger and stronger Chinese presence in Pakistan will be the natural progression of any incremental investment in the Pakistani Economy. I have used the words "incremental investment" to encompass both the economic meaning as also the military meaning of the words.

    The underlying security challenges to the Pakistani State are from the masses of radicalized citizens, who are increasingly demonstrating their ability to hijack the national agenda and render them to a background role in the larger game being played out with the aim of using religion and it's distortions to continue to erode the credentials of the Pakistani state.

    The recent incidents of Faislabad interchange, wherein an elected government of a Sovereign nation was forced to 'back out' in front of a motley group of what may best be called a disruptive group, and where in the Armed Forces clearly occupied a position of public withdrawal of support and refusing the legal directive of the said government by stepping in to enforce the orders as passed by the IHC, indicates to the population in general and the external world, the ability of these radical groups to quickly undermine the State - both the executive and the judiciary.

    In such a scenario, the logic of exclusive Chinese industrial parks/townships as envisaged under the CPEC plan (as far as what can be revealed from the CPEC Masterplan as published by Khurram Husain in Dawn dated 21 Jun 2017 link: https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101), makes sense only till these groups assume upon them the role of guardianship of the 'faith' (or whatever is their view of it anyway) , whereupon, these groups will be an antithetical force to the said Chinese. The disruptive effects on, say the Pakistani Agricultural Sector, are apparent on a cursory glance, but of course remain a mere 'figment of imagination' to the unabashed apologists.

    It is this underlying conflict of interest (if I may use the term) with the Chinese, that is the most comical and most serious threat that the Chinese will face. I say comical as it is indeed that, if one ripostes faith in a country and economy that is undermined actively by it's Armed Forces, weak and corrupt Civil Establishments and an increasingly radicalised and retrospective society. Serious in it's potential of disruptions in the near vicinity of India, thereby creating instability in the Indian periphery.

    If we take the example of only the Agricultural Sector, the strata of citizens involved here, renders them most susceptible to the changes being envisaged. Right from production to the processing to storage to transport and marketing, the proposed integration of Chinese firms and companies at all levels in the agricultural sector, will have serious consequences in this sector for the average Pakistani. It is this group that shall increasingly look towards the above mentioned fringe and radicalized groups, to provide support and succour, with the alternative being rather unattractive and poor one, a perceptibly weakened Government which does not have the capability or the ability to enforce it's writ over the State.

    Let us be very clear and very honest, the Chinese have raised their reservations to Pakistan over the present trends and directions in the Pakistani society. That the Pakistani Army did nothing to check this group, will be a point noted in China certainly, and by these groups as also hundreds of thousands of impressionable minds who will gravitate to this group now. This will also pit Pakistan Army against this subset increasingly as the societal and filial connections with the group will serve to undermine the effort, if and when required, against the groups(s).

    With the trends developing, the CPEC will be crucial for PRC for it's long term security and commercial needs. Nowhere in near proximity will China get thousands of Hectares for it's agricultural needs, nor unabridged access to markets for employment generation for it's own population, in the face of increased automation and refining of both production and development, which is reducing the number of jobs in order to enable cost competitiveness and consistent quality controls. In the trends of Global economic scenario, the only way to rejig for the challenges ahead for all industries is to reduce the overheads incurred per cost center and this is where the automation will come into play.

    So, what alternatives does one see? An increased Chinese security presence is my estimation, as Pakistan Army will face challenges in it's tasking if the present trends continue. You can only allow the society to be ruled by the radicals till a certain point. The day they are allowed to project themselves stronger than the State and it's Judiciary, that day is the day the downfall of the nation starts.

    The above is a condition ripe wherein the PRC may be forced to protect it's interests and investments by, in the worst case scenario, deployment of it's own security forces (Hint: This is where the re-run of Trans-Siberian rail network comes into play). The PRC experience in Xinjiang has been an open secret, and the emulation of the same can not be discounted. That ofcourse, directly or indirectly forces PA to act against these groups without differentiation as these groups are cut of the same cloth, be it against Afghanistan, Pakistan or India.

    As an Indian, and as a member who has deep interests in matters of security, for me, nothing else could be a more healthy and more productive outcome for Indian security than an increased Chinese presence.

    @PARIKRAMA @nair @stephen cohen @randomradio @Levina

    Please add on members. Or refine it :)


    (Disclaimer: Ideas expressed are solely attributable to the member author and in no way is the responsibility of the forum, it's administrative team or any member otherwise. Any reproduction of any part is welcome with due credit to the forum & it's members:))
     
  2. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    Simple Changes mate
    1. Currency of Pakistan - Change to Yuan
    2. All governmental bodies and State Enterprises - 51%+ preferably 74%+ holding to Chinese State Enterprise
    3. Disbanding of PA/PAF/PN completely or taking out the command structure and replacing it with a commander from China
    4. Recognizing Pakistan and CPEC as an extended province and hence changing the law & order, judiciary and security as subjects of China with Pakistan having nothing more to do about it
    5. The whole economy of Pakistan becomes a state /provincial matter of Chinese economy and become a subset of the same
    6. Banking and economy guided by the central bank policies of mainland China
    If such simple steps are not taken... the country will collapse.. Its present path does suggest that..

    Either way Pakistan can choose to have a future like something similar to Hongkong or they should look forward to becoming Syria 2.0
     
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  3. BlackOpsIndia

    BlackOpsIndia Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    I knew it, post from your own account Zaravan :devilwork:

    Larger question is will Pakistanis let Chinese own em? And after spending considerable time with Pakistan related matters I can surely tell they won't. After all they part of this very land, our land, they can't tolerate foreign rule.

    China will soon find considerable resistance as they tighten the grip, signs of which are already visible from time to time and before they could own Pakistan either they will forced to leave or will be limited to trade related roles only.

    Autonomous province of Pakistan (PRC) is very unlikely.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2017
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  4. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    Bro, its strange right... the country to now survive formally needs itself to become a province with all powers curtailed or end Pakistan herself would burn itself to its imminent death...

    By what you think abt this? Would love to hear your opinion..
     
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  5. BlackOpsIndia

    BlackOpsIndia Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    You both are gravely underestimating Biharis and UP mojahirs moved from ourselves and ruled that country. It's difficult time for them so they are letting China encroach a bit, but as soon as they will be comfortable China will be pushed back, like in the case of USA.

    The greatest asset for them against China will be same Jihadis, and they have lot of them to hurt China really bad, if things get to that point. A nation of 20 crore can never remain occupied once they have tasted freedom.

    It will be hard for China to sustain itself if they don't change the political system, once the perks of living in controlled state are reduced by dwindling growth people will demand for greater freedom, it will be tough time for China.
     
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  6. ghostwhowalks

    ghostwhowalks FULL MEMBER

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    Knowing the Pak
    Knowing the Pakistani mentality, Syria 2.0 is more likely than HK. I have interacted with a lot of Pakistanis across the world and one thing that is common to them all, is that they are an emotional bunch. They seem to be incapable of analytical thought. Hence its easy to sway them, and hence there is a plethora of cannon fodder for the Mullah brigade.

    Pak turning in HK is not in the interests of KSA. Saudis use Pakistanis as cannon fodder in their quest for propogation of radical Islam, and consequently prop up the Mullahcracy in Pakistan. So long as the Saudi money flows into Pakistan, coupled with the ideological sway they hold over vast tracts of their populace, China will have a tough time in Pakistan.

    It just needs one Chinese openly enjoying pork ribs in a restaurant to light the spark of outrage in some holier than thou mullah, which can snowball into a conflagration.

    How long with the Pak army supress its own in favour of the Chinese?
     
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  7. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel Technical Analyst

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    Semi-autonomous Region of Pakistan.

    A place where Pakistanis believe they have control while the Chinese actually decide Pakistan's economic and foreign policies.
     
  8. BlackOpsIndia

    BlackOpsIndia Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Articles like this should be pinned to top for few days.

    Not only they give different prospective but also provide ample of opportunity to counter and rebuttal.

    Other senior members must also publish once per month, about issues, to get a break from technical and financial terms this forum is drowning with. It's a great learning opportunity for people like us from experienced masters here :)
     
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  9. Lion of Rajputana

    Lion of Rajputana Captain FULL MEMBER

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    I just can't see a future where Pakistan quietly allows itself to be turned into an actual province of China. At one point or another in the future, I think China will have an insurgency on its hands if it tries to completely take over Pakistan that way. With several radical Islamic terror groups from the region being refocused from fighting the US/Pakistan/even India, as well as potentially large chunks of the radicalized Pakistani populace, and even parts of the Pakistani military fighting against Chinese occupying/colonizing forces.
     
  10. stephen cohen

    stephen cohen Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    @Hellfire

    In case you have been Following the English speaking Pakistani
    analysts ; writers ; journalists they are all Mourning the Death of Jinnah's pakistan

    Given what has happened a couple of days back ; a Pakistan which
    is peaceful and moderate is NEVER going to happen

    The Monster of Extremism is just too big
    These guys are in Tens of Millions in number

    Now a clash between Atheist Chinese and the Radical Islamists
    is quite likely ; if the Chinese Foot print grows in Pakistan

    The language used by these Guys for their OWN Muslim Brethren
    ie the Political class has just Revealed the Ugly Truth of the
    Pakistani nation and Society
     
  11. Dagger

    Dagger 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    A stable and strong Pakistan will prevent turmoil in one border of India. But there is many more sides to this.
    We may not be getting motley terror groups running around like Syria and the consequent refugees. That is one side.
    But Pakistan with all its prosperity and stability up till now chose to wage war 4 times. Unhinged enough to try once on a nuclear India. Your plan , by my opinion will probably give us a Iran vis-a-vis Israel Or more of the same - more effective sabotage techniques employed by the ISI on us to bleed us by thousand cuts.

    One thing about people organized around speeches of orators - Its a tendency of Islamic people I have observed everywhere. They hero worship. Rally around fiery orators.These orators are brutally honest of their intentions. Nothing cloaked in diplomacy or subtlety. A Baghdadi was able to summon 70000 soldiers from around the world with just his ideas and speeches and narrative. He painted a picture that appealed to them and the 70000 committed completely- willing to die , kill, rape. Same with Rizvi recently. Same brutal honesty with Khomeini. Same with Hafiz Saeed who is incriminated by his own speeches. You have even moderates rallying around an outspoken moderate like MBS. Even others are guilty of it. But not to their extent. I like to think the Modi fans have an unsaid idea about what they hope from him. But he is pretty diplomatic and subtle in his speeches. Very evasive. This is just my observation till now.
    Now my theory is - Nobody can control or subjugate people who rally around so openly to hostile leaders . If they dont like the Chinese - The Chinese will start having mini orgs creeping up and using guerilla tactics on them. The Chinese are no British empire plus todays communication technology makes it impossible. The Pakistanis are so openly hostile against such a generous sugar daddy like the US and have dumped them. China has relatively given nothing for free. I dont think economic control of Pakistani assets is gonna work for the Chinese. They will start meeting organized "freedom fighters" soon enough. Heck we got Kashmiris and Xinjiangis* fighting for independence even with 2 sugar daddy countries funding their development.

    A penny for your thoughts.
     
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  12. stephen cohen

    stephen cohen Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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  13. stephen cohen

    stephen cohen Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    You Guys must see Khadim Rizvi's Videos ; wonderful CHARMING Personality

    He cant say One sentence without the use of the Worst Swear words
     
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  14. vstol jockey

    vstol jockey Colonel MILITARY STRATEGIST

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    Pakistan is Just pakistani Punjab which rules the other states of Pakistan. The Pak Punjabi is the most islamised person in Pakistan. So dismember Pakistan and let the present day Pakistan Punjab be retained as a land locked country surrounded by India from three sides and Afghanistan from fouth side.
     
  15. Vyom

    Vyom Captain GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    1. China has no reason to be worried by the development in Pakistan they will be happy to do Business with any entity that comes up in Pakistan as long as its interest are secured, they will co-opt it, whatever floats their boat.
    2. China isn't there for Social reform it its there for serving strategic interests, not for perpetuating its political or social ideology.
    3. If society is getting radicalized, China gains expendable foot soldiers with zero accountability. Bad for us., while China excels at making walls, much better than trump. :D
    4. Pakistani Military Gernails and its establishment along with its religious zealots are beneficiaries of partnership with China, so they will protect Chinese Interests as quid pro Quo. Sure the option of blackmail or investment gone bad exists but Pakistan doesn't ave many investors. Both Pakistan and China Know this. So....
    5. Lastly a Stable and Prosperous Pakistan will increase it's animosity towards India it has always done so, perhaps if it millitary's role is reduced may be then (Still, civilians are no good either it was Zulfikar Bhutto a civilian PM who Vowed Pakistan will fight India for 1000 years. and eat grass but make nuke bomb to counter India), and along with this you see any power vacuum will create space for the mullahocracy and religion runs so deep in Pakistani society that they identify as Muslims first and Pakistanis later.. that creates a different set of problems where the citizenry is inherently against the state which is man made but for the religion which is god sent. (If pakistan's historical identity crisis isn't enough)

    -
    Last but not the least, feedback It took me a lot of effort to read that post, don't get me wrong the points that you mentioned are good as they stand and I am a crazy idiot bibliophile. You might want to write in way that induces flow in articles, like in story telling, that keeps one fixated on the topic... and go easy on the word play, no one wants grammar/vocabulary lesson when reading an article its has to be effortless. (completely my perception, you are free to ignore )
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2017
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