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Why I love the idea of China in Pakistan!

Discussion in 'South Asia & SAARC' started by Hellfire, Nov 28, 2017.

  1. mirage

    mirage 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    good evening , sure , pakistani's will allow china to rule them , officially though as unofficially these days , foreign policy of pakistan is controlled by china and to some extent jihadis like hafiz sa yeed . the only difference i foresee will be zarb e azb type of operation , which chinese have to start against the pakistani patriotic population if there are any left there .
     
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  2. stephen cohen

    stephen cohen Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Pakistan's economic troubles are mounting

    With a devaluation of their rupee being Inevitable and declining Forex Reserves
    will all lead to INFLATION

    These extremist Fundoos derive their strength from comparing the Lifes of Rich Liberals VS the Poor religious Pakistanis

    So what will happen is that these extremists will now indulge in extortion
    and other crimes Because they have NOW tasted Success

    All this will lead to More flight of capital and more Brain drain
     
  3. stephen cohen

    stephen cohen Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    What really pleases me is that Even the MOST Liberal pakistanis
    like Professor Hood buoy ; YLH ( Jinnah Worshipper ) ;
    our Friend Oscar from PDF ; Asma Jehangir
    and even Nawaz Sharif

    They ALL want to Somehow Defeat India and GET Kashmir

    And today they find themselves as Outsiders and The " Others " in pakistan
     
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  4. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    Nice reverts in this thread... @Vyom as always a pleasure to read your views..

    Will touch base few points... apologies in advance if its long...

    Investment part is partially true.. with one small but very important point.. almost all there investments are backed by
    1. Real Physical Assets
    2. Soft loans with high rate of interests
    3. Defaults leading to debt getting converted into equity and taking over the ownership of such institutions
    4. Appoint head /heads and management directly or indirectly .(puppet or proxy control)

    These simple points ensure all mitigation to China against any entity which comes in power in Pakistan.

    As for Pakistan co opting, tbh they dont have a choice.. the whole contracts favours one entity so much bcz Pakistan as a country needed these developments so badly that they preferred this route. if CPEC 91% income goes to China and only 9% is left for Pakistan.. then you clearly gauge how the whole contracts are actually worded..

    The question being can 9% income of whatever volume CPEC comes up with, can they sustain the repayment and its terms? We all should know the answer..

    The planning was a symbiotic relationship... they did not think which class of symbiotic relationship it would turn out to be

    Off topic ON
    A quick note
    Commensalism—A relationship where one species obtains food or shelter from the other species. Does not harm or help the other species.
    [​IMG]

    Mutualism—A relationship where both species benefit from the relationship.
    [​IMG]

    Parasitism-- A relationship between two species in which one species (the parasite) nourishes itself to the disadvantage of the other species (the host).
    [​IMG]
    Off Topic off
    So getting back to the main topic

    So Pakistan Planning was Commensalism initially but benefits derived were too limited.

    On paper execution thought process was Mutualism and whole Pakistan was sanitized with this thought process

    The results suggest that Parasitism.

    Thus Pakistan dont have any interest left...They are now dependent upon China for basic things.. its this reality which Pakistan fail to see..


    Coming to Societal reform aspect, what you said is true... They wont reform the existing system but what they will do is clamp down every other opportunity and push for their own.. reason being the re-settlement of ppl and masses following the controllers, who control all the entities.. The survival instinct of people to be in tehir good books and to be "in-line" with the main people ideologies will change over few years or a decade max.. Thus the society of Pakistan as of today would lose its relevance and soon what will be left is a Chinese ideology "Pakistanised" - a way of Communism blended with Islam with more of former than latter..

    In a way their whole identity will be lost and will be known like what books of history say about lost races...

    There would be some who would oppose this completely and they will accept radicalised Islam.. a version closer to ISIS and endorsing all the versions of ideologies of what today world calls as Terrorists outfits.. for them the holy war will shift to have some other meaning... Ultimately this bunch will become canon fodder for any Chinese Military forces for bring "stability & security" to their investment.

    Now what happen next when the whole of these threats disappear? yes the threat next is us, bcz for China greatest fear comes from India who can change the rules of the game provided it grows double digits for 3 decades..so in the long run, we should see rapid rise in disruptive tactics to dissuade us and even stop us from such a growth..

    But there is a ray of hope...

    You see Islamic population world over is growing very fast.. There is no population control and this means when so called radicals wage a war against oppressing Chinese, we should see a spurt in terror outfits, sympathisers and accumulation of such radical ppl into Pakistani region from world over.. This gives me hope that like Syria , Middle East issues and like ISIS there will be covert support yo these outfits by other countries who feel threatened and this situation will playout for decades..

    Giving India enough time to narrow the gap it has with China today and China would look at India in a way to help for stability of the region.. It wont like India to also join in covert support to these groups and will like India to officially endorse Chinese clampdown over Pakistan and in turn do a quid pro quo deal.

    The corrupted present elite class of Pakistan is already hand in gloves with such a deal.. be it political class or be it Pakistani generals.. And this will fuel the radicalists more bcz they will voice their fight under "just" causes whereas for China its not an issue.. a business txn happened and deal is secured.. They move in to protect their investments.. and also they will use these Pakistani generals as long as they hold any value.. the moment they see these generals are of no use to them, appropriately they will be dumped..

    I still feel it would be interesting to see how a Pakistan Army Chief reports to a mid level rank Chinese Military person and follows his orders.. That would be a good point to see and understand how much so called they have sold themselves.. just land or their soul, loyalty and "zameer".. in a way it will help in fueling up the radical outfits rise..

    lastly there is nothing called stable Pakistan...nothing left there..

    Pakistan is in ventilator... i expect it to live and struggle.. but soon ventilator will be taken off and it will be declared as dead...

    What left will be the Chinese Province.. and what is left for future is a scope of "Stable" Chinese province which will require active support from India.. Without India, Its nothing more than Syria 2.0, Syria 3.0, Syria 4.0 and so on......
     
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  5. stephen cohen

    stephen cohen Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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  6. stephen cohen

    stephen cohen Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    No Sir ; it wont just roll over and Die

    There will be Huge Upheavals with Intra provincial clashes in addition to
    Intra Sectarian clashes

    We have to be ready for all eventualities including the Fact that Rouge Generals
    get hold of Nukes
     
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  7. BlackOpsIndia

    BlackOpsIndia Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Stable Pakistan is not in our interest, the very first moment they find breathing space, that they have some chance against India that very day will be the beginning of end of Chinese influence.

    Pak will either intensify terrorism against us or will directly start a war (I have no doubt about overconfidence of pakistani generals).

    China on other hand won't be able to retaliate, they will prefer to let go of investment or friendly relations with Pakistan generals then go against them. Even right now, when Pak China relations are on up swing ISI will be busy recruiting sleeper cells in Xinjiang province to use them later. That's what those snakes do, they bite everyone that feed them, it's in the DNA, be it USA, Saudi, East Pakistan or even pre 1947 India.

    China should start worrying, Pakistan will use them and throw them.
     
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  8. Vyom

    Vyom Captain GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    Thank you @PARIKRAMA

    I, frankly, don't see an end game in this turmoil of Pakistan, the mullahs have hit where it hurts, PA for a long time has peddled itself to be the Army of Islam (implying not of the state) and Pakistan to be its fortress. The zealots have now tried to contest for the crown for the "defenders of Islam" tag from PA. This must worry PA in the long run because they inherently recruit from this population only. If the ordinary foot-soldier or the say the random officer chooses to change sides with his troops to the side of the mullahs, for some random reason or by falling to mullah propaganda, they will see Army as the tool of the state and not of Islam, whose doubts have been sown in this dharna itself.

    The Ordinary soldiers of PA must reconcile with contradiction : If they are an army of Islam then why are they fighting fellow Muslim brothers and their compatriots.... this creates utter confusion... what a predicament to chose from... for what cause he is fighting for if both sides claim they are for the same cause. Recipe for disaster I tell you.

    And China... well it has to deal with ISI Mullahs who are presently establishing Sleeper cells in Xinjiang with the returnees of Syria as a point of Leverage over the CCP and the Chinese for a future requirement. I have to give it to the Pakistan army and them weaponizing Islam to an amazing extent which should even make Saudi Arabia look dumb.

    Chinese investment is safe or not that is a question for a later day... by then with 91% returns on investment, I guess even the Chinese are already cutting their losses right from the word go. They are getting paid back in real time while still bleeding Pakistan with interest rates for deacdes to come, ensuring loyalty of the which ever regime comes to power will be Loyal like a poodle to the leader in Beijing and those who command the great hall of people.

    Chinese strategy seems to be keeping them hungry and fed just enough to be on the brink... and to be the Only source of food (Investment), while Pakistan's strategy is to plan for get some leverage over China by infecting it with the radicalism.

    But in any scenario, China can do unthinkable acts and come on top.. but in all of them the End Game of Pakistan doesn't look good or promising.

    @BlackOpsIndia Sorry couldn't quote you.. don't know how to use multi quote.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2017
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  9. BlackOpsIndia

    BlackOpsIndia Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Sir I think this is not the first time Mullahs in Pakistan snatched tag of defenders of Islam. There has been instance of 3 brigadier handing resignation instead of controlling same extremists in Pakistan.

    Defection from army to Mullahs and Mullahs to army proxy is very common there and it is not going to change.

    Pakistan was always in this chaos and remain in it while we all watch with excitement that now.... Now..... this time but they survive and I think always will (by internal disturbances I mean) reason being the ideology is carefully crafted to put Pakistan and army at top.

    For sometime there will be chaos but ISI will ultimately overpower any mullah trying to raise profile above army by extensive campaign.

    I think this just another season in Pakistan, it will pass, they are habitual of it now.
     
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  10. Vyom

    Vyom Captain GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    While I agree to your points, Power Vacuum left by politicians will be occupied by Mullahs, One thing that hasn't happened previously is the Mullahs openly coming against the Army and the state. Lal Masjid Scenario created enough rift that even Musharraf got an assassination attempt on his head. this was impossible Wihtout internal help.

    This will pass too but it is giving Ominous Signs, what if some Pakistani Ayatollah has tsted blood? and he rises and usurps power from the Army and the current politicians? and If such a transition happens what turmoil will Pakistan face in those days. We might as well start building a wall.

    P.S. I have Changed the last post a bit you might want to go through it for once.
     
  11. VCheng

    VCheng RIDER GEO STRATEGIC ANALYST

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    Although I have been in voluntary hibernation for a while here, someone posted a link to this article - ahem cough cough - somewhere else, and I just had to respond, given that the environment is more conducive to proper debate than - ahem cough cough - somewhere else.

    You have presented an interesting approach to CPEC and its possible ramifications for the future of Pakistan in the light of recent events there. I wish to point out that much of CPEC remains more hype than substance, and where the gains are tangible, they accrue directly to the military which has complete control of the entire corridor from Gawadar to Sost and Khunjerab. Where you see potential conflict between the zealots and the Chinese were the Master Plan to be realized more widely, I see the Army managing the the outcome successfully in keeping any irritants between the two parties to a minimum.

    In short, I see the Chinese too wise to step in and knock some sense into an asylum run by its inmates as long as they play ball, and the Pakistan Army only too willing to loosen and tighten the leash on its non-State actors to manage its goals in keeping with previous policies. I expect no drastic changes for better or worse in this situation, Sir.
     
  12. BlackOpsIndia

    BlackOpsIndia Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    That Lal Masjid definitely slipped my mind and Ayatollah thing is very possible scenario provided they are always waiting for messiah to save em. A little outside help to a future Ayatollah can definitely make it happen.

    Your posts are very thought provoking sir.
     
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  13. PARIKRAMA

    PARIKRAMA Captain IDF NewBie

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    @Vyom
    I like the word "army of lslam"

    Perhaps it explains why every person even if its a declared terrorist is still a brother to them since the brother also follows the same religion..

    so one brother cant fight another... and one cannot say other is a terrorists.. oh yes now all makes sense..

    A religious leader leading Pakistan? i like that scenario as well.. the army of Islam will change to children of Islam.. naturally the children's cant fight within themselves for supremacy..

    Well politician class will flee to safe heaven asap... will Generals do the same? I doubt.. you see the whole past time of Pakistani generals is to "cut deals" ... before it was China.. Soon they should call Saudi as well.. if tomo say a "Ayotollah" figure emerges.. they will cut a deal again.. be in front the religious leader.. lets be in shadow waiting to make some strings for the future puppet show..

    The real mastery trick in this magic show is - Where is ISI? Are they the one propelling the "ayotollah" theory?

    Are they the one fuelling this whole facade?

    What if this is the trial guinea pig experiment for Xinjiang? The sleeper cell active there with the same Islamic propaganda of brotherhood under one religion..

    Can China chose to ignore it then?
    Communism vs Islamic Brotherhood?
     
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  14. Sathya

    Sathya Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    I don't think we are in good position either..

    Being ahead of Pakistan or even China isn't end game for us too..

    Actually there is far lot of work for us..

    To develop & build a country of our size is not easy.

    To educate & mature the mindset of citizens is not easy at all.

    Look at the level of development & people around us ., we ll know where we are.

    Taking out Pakistan will probably give us only a minor % of comfort.
     
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  15. randomradio

    randomradio Colonel Technical Analyst

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    Open a new reply in a new tab and copy paste it into your earlier post.

    Or just make a new reply, no probs.
     
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