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Why I love the idea of China in Pakistan!

Discussion in 'South Asia & SAARC' started by Hellfire, Nov 28, 2017.

  1. dray

    dray 2nd Lieutant POLITICAL ANALYST

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    Let's hope for the best.
     
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  2. The enlightened

    The enlightened Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Pakistan considers India a mortal enemy and has eyes on Indian territory. China considers India a threat with disputed boundaries.

    Believing in some alternate reality where increased Pakistani prosperity would somehow liquidate the above two factors and lead them to turn away from a proven, low cost method of bleeding India is the height of naiveté.

    Obviously neither country wants to be attacked by terrorists themselves but both are fully behind supporting terrorists that attack us. Zarb-e-bakwas at least shows Pakistan has the tools necessary to force co-operation with 'bad-terrorists' which is all they could need.

    Increased Chinese presence in Pakistan and any increase in Pakki economic affluence is only bad news for India for the reasons enumerated below
    • Increased Terror budget which is currently massively strained by the massive outlay to Taliban/Haqqani/all other Afghan terrorists that terrorize Afghans and ISAF instead of BSF and IA
    • A more efficient Pakistani administration which is able to better present its case in international orgs with ever greater Chinese backings
    • A more confident Pakistan which with China's hand on its head feels that it has the breathing space to pull of more terrorist activities on Indian soil ala 26/11 and get away with them as it used to before 26/11; as it is even more confident that India wouldn't respond militarily given vast Chinese presence on its soil
    • A general improvement in Pakistani military capability both conventional and non-conventional due to increased affluency
    All of the above are bad news for India but the real clincher is the increase in Pakistani capability to push Taliban to either complete power or a negotiated settlement due to
    • reduced effectiveness of American economic sanctions with new sugar daddy picking up the tab thereby deterring Americans from pulling that plug in the first place
    • reduced dependence on Americans weapons of war
    • China's material support to its designs to ultimately force Americans out of the region
    • more support to Taliban thereby further persuading Americans to cut losses and run away a from a unwinnable perepetual war leaving the Taliban in power with some secret handshake where Talibs don't allow their controlled territory to be used against americans (which the talibs of course will but no body ever accused the Americans foreign policy hawks of being bright)
    and that is the point when this turns into a shit fight - which it will.

    Soviet withdrawal - Taliban (Pakistan) in power vs Deaths in Kashmir
    [​IMG]




    Co-incidence much?

    Very hard to love such an idea.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2017
  3. X_Killer

    X_Killer Captain FULL MEMBER

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  4. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate THINKER

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    The said 'death' took place from 1950 itself, with mainstreaming of religious fanatics and also when the elevation of Ayub Khan in armed forces by political shenanigans, sowed the seed for the reverse - the shenanigans of the armed forces till 1958 when the military rule was finally established by him, the one and only example of Indian sub-continent wherein a Field Marshal was appointed as such by the person himself.
     
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  5. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate THINKER

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    There are. This was a draft made in 30 minutes and posted as such. In order to stimulate members to come out with their ideas, and encourage few to analyze the security imperatives of India for themselves.

    It does get tiresome having to spell out the basics.

    My intention was to elicit a response, and seeing the views that have been posted here, am very thankful to all the members for having taken the time to comment on a draft posted that only addresses a single aspect.

    Of course I have an ulterior military motive too, that of taking out my popcorn and watching the fun if Chinese do consolidate their hold and need military forces to protect hose interests.



    The '1000 cuts' works both ways.

    My plan is to hedge our bets against a collection of groups which are radicalized and more dangerous for India, and not the whole country, by having the Chinese actually move in. Like you said, the threshold will ensure that the conflict will remain in the domain of Low Intensity Conflict. But the interesting point is whether what we face in Kashmir now is indeed a Low Intensity Conflict or have the militants actually embraced the term which we were trying to label them internationally as - that of terrorist? With the recent trends in targeting of service personnel on leave at their homes, they have crossed a line which has rendered them into the latter, thereby undermining the very nature of so called Kasmir Cause.

    Today, the 'Kashmir Cause' has shifted from projecting the Indian Armed Forces an occupying force, to a force that is in consonance with activities of organizations like AQ and ISIS and hence are in domain of being a terror outfit as opposed to being a 'secessionist/separatist' outfit as earlier was the case.


    Interesting how that shall play out. Another draft thought on same, may be on the way :)
     
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  6. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate THINKER

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    LOL

    Point taken and accepted.

    Problem is, and you might have been able to make it out, that lot has been left unsaid and this was a draft that I made and put up, hence the words, correct/refine. :)

    This is not at all an overall analysis and neither do I intend to post one (frankly, that needs time and investment of resources, which has no incentive for me :)), merely meant to elicit reactions and generate a discussion so that members can participate in putting across their perceptions.
     
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  7. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate THINKER

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    My Dear Sir.

    I would seriously urge you to stick around and keep in touch with @PARIKRAMA. Your wisdom and insights will be valuable as we actually move towards improving ourselves all the more and evolve as humans and as students of subjects of mutual interests.

    Coming back to your points as above, it is a lament that I share with you. However, with the way things are progressing in Pakistan and the imminent ratcheting up of those calling for action against perceived insults to Islam or Prophet, the day is not far off wherein these groups and the subsets in Pakistan population pushing forward such agendas, are a direct threat to Chinese interests.

    And it is here that the Chinese are quite ruthless, and will get away as this subset and this ideological base is the precise one which is synonymous with that of ISIS and AQ, and for which, hardly any sympathy exists.

    Hypothetically, the whole subgroup can be arbitrarily shot by Chinese and not one word will come out :D
     
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  8. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate THINKER

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    main bolunga to bologe ki bolta hai :D

    Actually, I had to stop at a bare skeleton and to with hold certain points, hence a dissonance. Also, it is more of an abstract muse than a working paper.

    Like I said, it was the first draft and typed up in 30 mins, just to stimulate some members, and secondly, the actual content needs to be collated with other aspects connected with it to present a comprehensive and complete analysis.

    That is why the refine and correct request at the end :)
     

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