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Why The World Isn’t Talking About Kashmir BloombergQuintOpinion

Discussion in 'South Asia & SAARC' started by SrNair, May 2, 2017.

  1. SrNair

    SrNair Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Today, the trend lines for Jammu & Kashmir are quite troubling, to say the least.

    Nearly a year after Indian security forces killed Burhan Wani, a young Kashmiri militant with a large following, anger hasn’t abated. Tension has risen in recent days after a videosurfaced on social media that appeared to depict Indian security forces using heavy-handed tactics against a civilian. On April 24, assailants gunned down a local politician in Kashmir, Abdul Gani Dar. Students have regularly clashed with security forces.

    When Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Rajnath Singh this week, according to local media reports, New Delhi declined her call for a dialogue process to begin right away, suggesting that such an idea was unrealistic “while there is stone-pelting and militant violence.”

    Deepening tensions in Kashmir could further aggravate frayed relations between India and Pakistan. Delhi could denounce Pakistan for orchestrating the unrest, while Islamabad could lambast Indian security forces for their brutalities.


    [​IMG]
    Girl students run for cover as police burst tear gas shells during clashes in the vicinity of Lal Chowk in Srinagar on April 24, 2017. Photographer: S Irfan/PTI)
    In effect, Kashmir has never been a bigger nuclear flashpoint than it is today. And yet, the world has said or done relatively little in response. To be sure, recent tensions have generated banner global news headlines, as well as a scathing New York Times editorial.

    Still, on the whole, the international community has paid the simmering Kashmir dispute little to no mind.
    A logical question – and certainly one to which Pakistanis incessantly demand an answer – is why.

    Three possible explanations come to mind.

    America’s Attention Is Elsewhere
    First, there are too many other crises convulsing the globe that are perceived by the West to be of more direct relevance. In the United States, the Trump administration confronts a dizzying array of foreign policy challenges, from Russia and Syria to China and especially North Korea.

    It’s quite simple: Washington accords the most attention to issues that affect it the most. And Kashmir doesn’t make the cut. Threats to U.S. treaty allies in the Indo-Pacific and concerns about terrorist attacks on U.S. interests register more emphatically on the radar than do concerns about a faraway, localised dispute – even one with nuclear dimensions.


    [​IMG]
    U.S. Vice President Mike Pence arrives at the truce village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in Paju, South Korea, on April 17, 2017. (Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg)
    Pakistan’s Credibility Deficit
    Second, Pakistan, the one major player fervently attempting to attract the international community’s attention, has failed to do so. Several reasons may explain why.

    One is that Islamabad lacks regular access to global forums that it can use as a platform to highlight Kashmir for a world audience. On the few occasions when it does enjoy such access – such as at the annual United Nations (UN) General Assembly meetings – its plaintive calls for more focused attention on Kashmir have largely fallen on deaf ears.

    Additionally, Pakistan – despite very real progress in counter-terrorism, democratisation, and economic growth – suffers from a global credibility problem. Pakistan is burdened by ugly legacies (read AQ Khan’s sharing of nuclear secrets and Osama Bin Laden’s long stay in Abbottabad) and problematic policies (think Pakistan’s decades-long dangerous dalliance with terrorists).

    Consequently, many within the international community are hard-pressed to sympathise with Pakistan’s complaints about Kashmir.
    And the few nations willing to formally support Pakistan’s position on Kashmir (hello Beijing) aren’t about to launch global advocacy campaigns on Islamabad’s behalf.


    [​IMG]
    Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s prime minister, poses for a photograph with Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, in Berlin, Germany. (Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg)
    Not A Dispute Many Want To Wade Into
    Third, even if the dispute made its way on to the international community’s radar, it’s hard to imagine any country wanting to wade into it. Yes, candidate Trump on the campaign trail and President-Elect Trump in a bizarrely convivial telephone conversationwith Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif suggested that he welcomed the possibility of mediation. So did Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the UN. But we should treat such pronouncements as conciliatory rhetoric, not statements of intent. They also likely referred more to addressing India-Pakistan tensions in general than to Kashmir specifically.

    Given how ugly and messy and complex the Kashmir dispute is, most nations won’t want to touch it with a ten-foot pole.
    Great Britain, Russia, the U.S., and any other potential mediator won’t be interested – unless their involvement were framed as trying to get the two countries to talk more broadly, and not about Kashmir. Another factor here – one particularly salient with Washington, given its intention to strengthen relations with India – is not wanting to antagonise New Delhi by opting to formally intervene in a dispute that New Delhi believes is strictly off-limits to outsiders.


    [​IMG]
    Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh and Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti, during a meeting in New Delhi on April 24, 2017. (Photograph: PTI /PIB)
    Can the international community’s relative silence on Kashmir also be attributed to deft diplomacy by Delhi to secure the agreement of global actors not to speak up about the issue?

    That’s certainly a possibility. However, Indian diplomats posted in the West are already working on many high-priority matters. India’s high-level direct interactions with the Trump administration so far have engaged a full plate of issues, from defense cooperation and the H-1B visa program to a possible trip to Washington by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

    We can assume that the relative lack of global attention to the Kashmir crisis has more to do with factors tied to the international community than to any diplomatic lobbying efforts carried out by India.
    The takeaway is that the world won’t be clamoring to help ease tensions in Kashmir. This means the world could eventually find itself in a difficult position if the unrest were to increase and explode, and especially if it were to bring India and Pakistan to the cusp of another conflict. Then, at this point, external actors may feel compelled to play the role of a firefighter – to try to defuse tensions and bring a dangerous situation under control.

    If there’s a silver lining here, it’s that Washington has excelled when playing the role of crisis manager in the India-Pakistan dispute. Analyses of two recent case studies – the Kargil conflict in 1999 and the border confrontation in 2001 after an attack on India’s Parliament building – demonstrate how U.S. mediation efforts helped de-escalate tensions.

    As a general rule of thumb, pre-emptive efforts to forestall conflict are more prudent than reactive, crisis-period interventions. And yet, in recent years at least, the U.S. has managed to pull the latter off relatively well on the subcontinent.

    Still, the main conclusion is sobering for those that want Kashmir placed front and centre on international policy agendas.


    The international community has stayed on the sidelines, and it’s likely to remain on the sidelines.
    Ultimately, Kashmir will have to fend for itself.

    In an ideal world, key local stakeholders in Kashmir and authorities in New Delhi would take matters into their own hands and find the right incentives to establish some sort of dialogue that brings a measure of calm.

    Sadly, we don’t live in an ideal world. There’s good reason to believe that with neither the international community nor actors in the region willing or able to make a difficult situation better, extended – and deepening – tensions are all but inevitable.

    Michael Kugelman is deputy director and senior associate for South Asia with the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C.

    The views expressed here are those of the author’s and do not necessarily represent the views of BloombergQuint or its editorial team


    https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/2017/04/27/why-the-world-isnt-talking-about-kashmir
     
  2. SrNair

    SrNair Captain FULL MEMBER

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  3. Naagraj

    Naagraj 2nd Lieutant FULL MEMBER

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    Kashmir valley need to be purged and cleansed. Shut down all mass media, social networking, electricity, internet, newspaper and everything that connects them to outer world and then just do what baygon spray do to cockroaches. Clean the valley once and for all.
     
  4. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate THINKER

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  5. Proxy1234

    Proxy1234 FULL MEMBER

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    From the article itself:
    As a general rule of thumb, pre-emptive efforts to forestall conflict are more prudent than reactive, crisis-period interventions.

    No need to say anything else.
     
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  6. Bregs

    Bregs Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    Pakistan seems to have lost credibility and trust about its sincerity in dealing with terrorism emanating from its own territory. Hence now no in world who matters bothers about what they say about kashmir. This vexed chronic problem now has become bilateral problem only
     
  7. Ankit Kumar 001

    Ankit Kumar 001 Major REGISTERED

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    The "Rest of India" which has payed taxes , fought wars and stood up against terrorism is certainly more important than pigs in Kashmir.

    Jammu and Leh should be separated as a special union territory , and the valley should get more hard AFSPA , create a law that waving Pakistani flags, or pro Pakistan slogans or etc is a crime and the Indian Security Forces have the right to shoot at sight for these incidents.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2017
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  8. Ankit Kumar 001

    Ankit Kumar 001 Major REGISTERED

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    Alas , we have a government which scores in negative in the subjects of diplomacy, Strategy on Kashmir, posture against Pakistan and China.
     
  9. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    I would give fourth reason:

    (4) No one give a damn about Islamist whining as everyone knows their game.
     
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  10. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate THINKER

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    That is the MOST important reason. I totally agree. That is what changed the dynamics for India in the aftermath of 9/11.

    With the Pakistani efforts of Islamisation of the Kashmiri society being allowed to gain traction in the society, the changeover from a Kashmiri struggle to a Muslim struggle within a democratic and fairly reasonable societal fabric of a country, in a region where the concerned masses have their own writ, came to fore. That this was a militant and salafist-takfiri movement, became more obvious beginning 2007, when the Intelligence Agencies 'exploited' this trend to portray the struggle as purely Islamists vs kashmiris.
     
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  11. A_poster

    A_poster Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Though it changed dynamics in India, but this article pertain to change in dynamics in western world/USA. What has happened here is that due to weekly terrorist attack done by Islamists in west, they lost constituency to which they could cry 'victim'. People naturally assume that in any Islamist-Kuffar conflict, Islamists are at fault, and it percolates to even executive of these countries, irrespective of what virtue-signaling they do in public.

    This means that Islamists lobby does not have weapon of 'emotional atyachar' by which they could play victim,appeal to people's sense of empathy, and develop pressure on governments from ground up; and thus have to offer concrete benefits or interests for countries to take their side, and this is usually does not pan out as desired as pissing on India these days have started carrying consequences. They only get audience in Muslim countries and China, and no Muslims country ,bar Pakistan, is willing to go against its interests by siding with some "racially inferior convert musallis" against India.

    I also suspect that some westerners ,including people in government, derive vicarious pleasure when Islamists are totaled by any country. I suspect,even if India do a democide/mini-genocide in Kashmir, it would not invoke much sympathy from non-Muslim countries, as long as we could keep it under wraps.
     
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  12. Hellfire

    Hellfire Devil's Advocate THINKER

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    We are reaching that stage. If you had read what I did write in another forum, the second cycle of 'culling' will now take place.

    Please take the COAS' statement in the context. IA will hit anyone who picks up a weapon against UoI very hard. No more surrender. We will 'clear' the society once more.

    This is going to be a very targeted and specific clearing of undesirable anti-nationals. The more there are, the greater numbers will be killed. And not one nation in the world will bat an eyelid.

    This is what I was indicating to @Golden_Rule the other day, we have managed the situation very well, have the world opinion firmly on our side. Now we need to take all steps required to make a nation unite, hence patience is the game.

    In any counter-insurgency, the game is of patience. You have the means, the resources and the will to out last the insurgents.

    One has to remember that given a chance between economic prosperity and personal progress on one hand and violence and death on another, majority will choose the former. India is enroute towards the former. We need time to make this and other insurgencies an option as above.

    :)
     
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  13. SrNair

    SrNair Captain FULL MEMBER

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    This is not only about the Pakistan's inability and lack of credibility but also the reality the western nations faces during last few years .
    Remember how those British BBC reduced 10 terrorists of 26/11 in to mere 10 gun man.
    Then it was before the refugee crisis.Westerners especially Europeans doesnt spare any slightest chance to attack the Israel in the name of human right activitists .
    But now on they wont say anything because IS is just under their nose.

    Kashmir was a human rights issue until the terrorism hits western cities .
     
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  14. SrNair

    SrNair Captain FULL MEMBER

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    Article says Indian lobbies alone cant influence their opinions .I dont think so .Nations need business ,trade and economic power carry more punch .
    British was the prime one that undermined our effort in Kashmir until last decade .
    Now they are not strong enough to challenge us .I think within another decade a few powerful that opposes us will also stop their hobbies .
    Like what China did in Tibet .

    Kashmiris are shameless opportunists .World have already seen our ability during floods and also saw their treachery when they voted enmasse during last election.
    Noone trusts Kashmiris not anymore .
     
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  15. Bregs

    Bregs Lieutenant FULL MEMBER

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    spot on :cheers:
     
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