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Will the stand-off between Iran and Israel become a new problem for India’s security

Discussion in 'International Relations' started by Steel, Feb 16, 2012.

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  1. Steel

    Steel Lieutenant SENIOR MEMBER

    Aug 25, 2011
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    One has to take seriously the Israeli suspicion that Iran and Hezbollah - the terrorist organisation supported by it - had a hand in the terrorist attack with a magnetised improvised explosive device (IED) on an Israeli diplomatic vehicle in New Delhi on February 13. However, it is going to be difficult to establish the veracity of the Israeli suspicion unless the terrorist responsible for the attack or any of his accomplices is arrested. There is so far no smoking gun pointing in any definitive direction.

    The Israeli suspicion is strengthened by the fact that there was a similar - but unsuccessful - attempt in Tbilisi in Georgia the same day, and other attempts in Bangkok the next day. It is not yet clear whether Israeli nationals were the targets in the Bangkok attacks. Assuming they were, the series of attempted attacks on Israeli targets in three different cities indicates state-sponsored planning and execution.

    Iran has been having a war of nerves with Israel over its nuclear programme and has been the suspected target of Israeli covert action - aimed at disrupting its nuclear programme - for over a year now. It has the required motive and the covert capabilities to make Israel pay for its actions. It would look upon attacks directed against Israeli nationals and interests as justified acts of reprisal to protect its nuclear programme. As a result, the world is likely to see a covert war with no holds barred bet-ween the two countries.

    While Israel has been able to wage its covert war against Iran in Iranian territory, Israeli security agencies' effectiveness will make it difficult for Iran to execute reprisal attacks in Israel. It will, therefore, try to extend its attacks on Israeli targets to other countries with an Israeli presence. Countries with a weak preventive security set-up will be its battlefields of choice for hitting back at Israel.

    If it is established that Iran was behind the New Delhi attack, it would indicate that India has been chosen as suitable territory for the Iranian reprisal attacks even at the risk of such attacks having an adverse impact on Iran's hitherto friendly relations with India. In the eventuality of the Iranian hand being proved, Indian security agencies will face a difficult question: Is this a one-off with no follow-up attempts or are more attacks likely?

    The February 13 attack was well planned and well executed. This would have been possible only with painstaking collection of information regarding the movements and activities of Israeli diplomats and a capability for undetected clandestine acti-vity in Indian territory for the procurement of explosive material and the fabrication of the IED.

    The fact that all such preparatory activities went unnoticed and undetected by the Indian agencies would indicate that Iran already has a strong intelligence presence in Indian territory - in the form of intelligence officers working undercover, sleeper cells in the Indian Shia community and among the large numbers of Iranians studying in India. Detecting and neutralising the Iranian network in India is going to be a difficult task. Till now, the focus of our agencies has been on detecting and neutralising the pro-Pakistan networks, which operated mainly through sympathisers in the Sunni community.
    Will the stand-off between Iran and Israel become a new problem for India’s security agencies? - The Economic Times
  2. SajeevJino

    SajeevJino Major SENIOR MEMBER

    Apr 4, 2011
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    Re: Will the stand-off between Iran and Israel become a new problem for India’s secur

    No Not Happens...........Still now no strong evidence to complain Iran.........
    so don't negotiate Iran...........
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